Last Sunday on Meet the Press, James Carville offered Democrats good advice: “Quit being a whiny party and get out there and tell people what you did … the exact truth.” On the vital issue of jobs, they should be cheering, because the Biden administration has helped create and sustain a remarkable employment boom.
When it comes to what’s been called the “Great Resignation,” there’s nothing new about Americans quitting their jobs to look for something better. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that from 2015 to 2019, an average of 38 million full-time and part-time working people voluntarily left their jobs per year—and that excludes retirements and layoffs. In 2021, those voluntary “quits” jumped to 47 million, the highest level ever.
The pandemic almost certainly played a role by inspiring workers to reconsider their life choices. But for most people, moving from ruminating to resigning requires confidence that they can find a good position somewhere else. That’s why huge numbers of quits only happen in a booming job market.
People who quit in 2021 generally found new positions much faster than normal. The number of open jobs waiting to be filled averaged 9.6 million per month in 2021, 47 percent higher than the average for 2015 to 2019. Those openings outpaced the high levels of quits by 70 percent. As a result, the median length of unemployment fell from 18.4 weeks in January 2021 to 12.4 weeks by December.
The current employment boom is fueled by a highly successful economy and soaring rates of business creation. The Census Bureau reports that Americans created nearly 5.4 million private businesses in 2021—68 percent higher than the average of 3.2 million per year from 2015 to 2019. This historic level of business formation helped make the record level of quits possible, including those who left their jobs to start their own business. It also should help sustain healthy job gains throughout 2022.
In every recent period, some laid-off workers start their own businesses, often by necessity rather than choice. And they are a small piece of current business formation: All told, 16.7 million people lost their jobs in 2021, compared to 47 million who left their jobs voluntarily.
All of these factors contributed to the strongest job growth in more than 40 years. In 2021, the economy added 6.4 million jobs—a gain of 4.5 percent, or more than three times the average job growth of 1.4 percent from 2015 to 2019.
Of course, it’s normal to see outsized job growth following any period of large job losses. This time, most of the bounce back from the 2020 lockdowns came later that year. Unemployment peaked at 14.7 percent in April 2020 and fell to 6.4 percent by January 2021. The economic success of the Biden presidency was even better, stunning government forecasters. In February 2021, the Congressional Budget Office forecast a 5.3 percent unemployment rate at the end of 2021. Thanks to the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, passed the following month, the jobless rate fell to 3.9 percent by November, for an additional decline of 39 percent in 11 months.
The impact of that winter 2021 stimulus is clear when we compare 2021 to previous deep recessions. In the serious downturn of 1981–82, after joblessness peaked at 10.8 percent, it took 49 months for the unemployment rate to decline by 39 percent. And following the Great Recession of 2008–09, it took 62 months to recede by 39 percent. Granted, a medically induced economic coma like the shutdowns is not the same as a traditional recession, but it’s also much more severe.
Another advantage of the Biden economic and employment boom is that the greatest benefits are going to people with less education and lower earnings. Data collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta shows that for the first time in decades, median hourly wages and salaries in 2021 increased faster among Americans with high school diplomas or some college but no degree. Similarly, median hourly wages or salaries in 2021 increased most rapidly among working Americans in the lowest earnings quartile.
One reason is that two industries employing large numbers of people without college degrees—retail and food services and accommodations—saw especially large increases in both quits and new businesses. Nearly 16.4 million people voluntarily left their jobs in those two industries in 2021, 3.3 million more than the annual average for 2015 to 2019. The two industries also saw nearly 1.3 million new businesses open in 2021, more than twice the annual average for 2015 to 2019. As the economy expanded rapidly through 2021, businesses trying to find and hire millions of new workers had to raise their wages.
Across most of the economy, wage gains in 2021 lagged the sudden onset of inflation: Overall, they were up by 4.6 percent before inflation and down 2.1 percent after inflation. But for regular workers in those two industries—everyone but managers and professionals—inflation-adjusted hourly wages rose by 7.6 percent in food services and accommodations and remained steady in retail.
As with the historic level of quits in this period, much of the current spurt of inflation is tied to the pandemic. Happily, epidemiologists expect the Omicron variant to recede, as already appears to be happening in Cleveland, Newark, and Washington, D.C. Yes, more variants may appear. But with increasing vaccination rates, the new antivirals, the enhanced immunity from Omicron, and the administration’s new program for routine free testing, the COVID-19 crisis should finally subside.
For that reason and others, most economists expect inflation to recede in the coming months. The bond market is not panicking. But we haven’t seen inflation tied to supply-chain problems since 1946–47, so those predictions may be off. If they’re right and inflation ebbs, the sharp increase in wages before inflation will be permanent, since companies know that wage cuts inspire more quits and destroy morale for those who stay. The result would be the strongest GDP growth in a generation, fast-rising new businesses, a red-hot labor market, and real wage gains for most Americans.
All of that might not happen in time for the midterms. But over a longer-term—say, by 2024—Americans will clearly recognize the Biden boom.
Category: Economics / Economy / Income / Financial
U.S. COVID peak may be over but not the pain as deaths rise
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-covid-peak-may-be-over-not-pain-deaths-rise-2022-01-24/
Even as COVID-19 cases drop and hospitalizations show signs of plateauing in hard-hit pockets of the United States, the still-rising death toll from the Omicron variant highlights the trail of loss that follows every virus surge.
Coronavirus deaths hit an 11-month high on Sunday, climbing 11% in the past week when compared to the prior week, according to a Reuters analysis.
COVID-19 fatalities are a lagging indicator, meaning their numbers usually rise a few weeks after new cases and hospitalizations.
The Omicron death toll has now surpassed the height of deaths caused by the more severe Delta variant when the seven-day average peaked at 2,078 on Sept. 23 last year. An average of 2,200 people a day, mostly unvaccinated, are now dying due to Omicron.
That is still below the peak of 3,300 lives lost a day during the surge in January 2021 as vaccines were just being rolled out.
“It will be a while until we see (a) decrease in death as very sick people with COVID remain hospitalized for a long time,” said Wafaa El-Sadr, a professor of epidemiology and medicine at Columbia University in New York City.
As Omicron surged in December and earlier this month, hospital systems from New Jersey to New Mexico buckled under the sheer number of patients brought in by the apparently less severe but highly infectious variant, prompting the federal government to send military medical aid to six states.
“More infectious variants tend to run through a population very rapidly,” said El-Sadr in an email. “Even if such new variants cause less severe disease (particularly among those vaccinated and boosted), we will likely still see increase in hospitalizations and deaths due to vulnerability of unvaccinated and unboosted.”
COVID-19 hospitalizations are still setting records in some states including Arkansas and North Carolina. Nationally they are now under 147,000, compared with a peak of 152,746 on Jan. 20, the Reuters tally shows.
Cases nationally are down by 12% in the last seven days compared with the prior seven, the analysis found, prompting some health officials to strike a cautiously optimist tone on the trajectory of the pandemic.
“It’s certainly reached its peak in certain regions of the country,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease official, said in an interview with MSNBC on Monday. “I believe that in the next few weeks we will see – as a country – that it is all turning around.”
U.S. COVID-19 data often lag a few days behind the actual state of affairs and paints an imperfect picture.
Positive findings from the now ubiquitous at-home tests are not included in the official case count, while hospitalization counts often do not differentiate between patients who are receiving treatment for COVID-19 and others who test positive while in the hospital with other issues.
On Monday, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that it was dangerous to assume Omicron would herald the end of COVID-19’s most acute phase, and exhorted nations to stay focused to beat the pandemic.
The Omicron wave scrambled the hopes of Americans for a gradual transition into a post-pandemic reality and re-ignited tensions around masking and vaccines in schools and workplaces, exposing once again the deep political fault lines cracked open by the health crisis.
On Sunday, large crowds rallied in Washington, D.C., in opposition of COVID-19 mandates, some holding signs that read “people call the shot, not the government.”
Virginia’s new Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is facing a lawsuit from seven school boards seeking to stop his order that would make masks optional in school as of Monday.
A spokesperson for Youngkin, vowing to fight the lawsuit, said on Monday, “We are disappointed that these school boards are ignoring parent’s rights.”
‘I’m done with Covid!’: Journalist gets praise and backlash for late-night comments
Daily cartoon / meme roundup: Do the people in the US deserve quality lives like the people in other developed countries do, or are they just to be used until worn out, then thrown away
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Scottie’s world today
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Wouldn’t it be a great world if people acted this way instead of acting only for themselves? Scottie
Remember when it was cool to help others, social welfare programs & orgs, & humanity? Everyone needs help in their lives. Now with unprecedented inequality, only the privileged get help.
Tax the wealth created by capitalism. Fund the vulnerable exploited by capitalism.
Trying to bring back child labor for 2022 huh.
I am the best. I have the best brain. Only I can do it. Only my son-in-law who can’t pass a security clearance can do this. No media allowed when I met with Putin.
Just say you enjoy the cult.
Dumb people avoid prevention. Even bigger morons politicize prevention. The biggest morons avoid prevention because the politics.
https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1485355245677039616?s=20
If you identify with the racist, if your feelings are hurt to learn about racism, you failed life.
The right to privacy includes women.
#DunningKruger
The Dunning–Kruger effect is the cognitive bias whereby people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability.
Pretend victims.
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Misleading right wing media cartoons / memes
We have been arming the Ukraine lately, as have Britain and Germany. I suspect Ramirez wants the readers to think it would be okay to preemptively attack Russia. Folks, slow down and give it another millisecond of thought, does that sound like a GOOD idea? If so, please get immediate counseling. At the same time the right wing is hammering Biden on his Ukraine policy the Republicans in congress that are in the pay or under threat from Russia are demanding that Biden rule out sending any troops. So Biden did say he wouldn’t send any US military troops to fight Russia in Ukraine. What a set of foreign asset assholes. Scottie
Since life changes all the time, it must be terrible to be a conservative who practically wets their pants when anything changes. Such an absurd cartoon. Also, “woke” is an obsolescent term. How is a gay M&M any more or less stupid than a straight one? You know what is stupid? People who worry about this crap.
News headline: “M&M characters get new, more inclusive look”
No WONDER poor ol’ Payneful is having a snit. “My GOD, how is it POSSIBLE for important cultural icons such as the M&M characters to CHANGE when they were already PERFECT, just like God made them in the garden of Eden? What is this world COMING to?!! (etc)” Scottie
Tom Hanks narrates a new spot that marks year one of Joe Biden’s presidency, one that tries to reinforce a message that the country is on the right track. This scares the right because he is a prominent well liked person. So they have to attack him as much as they can. Rather than admit that Biden really has accomplished quite a bit in just one year and would have done a lot more if the right had not tried to block everything that would help the country jsut because they don’t want Biden to have a win. That is how radical the right has become, doesn’t matteer if the country really needs it they will block it to deny the Democrats a win. The Democrats don’t do that … yet. Scottie
What a misrepresentation. She was saying take care of your self over the weekend, do what you need to do that recharges yourself, and then come back at the issues / problems strong on Monday. What is controversial about that message? Unless the left fighting the right wing ongoing sabotage of the country is scary for the right? Scottie
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And now some for fun
on
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott introduces ‘Parental Bill of Rights’ targeting state education system
Gov. Greg Abbott announced Thursday evening plans to amend the Texas Constitution with a Parent Bill of Rights if he is re-elected. The proposal follows Abbott’s introduction of a Taxpayer Bill of Rights this week.
Abbott publicly signed the bill at an event hosted by the Founders Classical Academy of Lewisville, where he criticized schools shutting down during the pandemic and issuing mask mandates. He said the bill will help restore parents as the primary decision-makers of their child’s education and healthcare decisions.
“No government program can replace the role that parents play in the education of their children,” Abbott told the audience. “Our focal point is to ensure that parents are put at the forefront, both of education of their children as well as the decision-making for their child’s healthcare.”
Abbott continued to impart that the government often intrudes on parental decision-making and threatens the role guardians have in their child’s wellbeing. “Many parents are growing increasingly powerless about what to do to regain that control,” Abbott said. “That must end.”
Under the bill, Abbott said the state’s constitution will be amended to “make clear that parents are the primary decision makers in all matters involving their children.” The bill will expand parents access to school curriculum and ensure material is available online or in other easily accessible ways, he said.
“We will make sure parents concerns about school curriculum or policies will be heard quickly and respectfully,’ Abbott said, adding that under his plan the state will give parents the option if their child will repeat a course or grade level instead of leaving the decision solely to the school district.
To protect children’s privacy in schools, the state will also prohibit the selling or the sharing of students’ personal data outside of the Texas public education system, Abbott said.
Abbott, who is running for reelection, has made it a point to target inappropriate content in schools. In November, he directed the Texas Education Agency to develop statewide standards preventing “obscene content in Texas public schools.” Shortly after he told the agency to investigate criminal activity related to “the availability of pornography” in public schools, saying the agency should refer to such instances “for prosecution to the fullest extent of the law.”
Under the Parent Bill of Rights, Abbott said any educator convicted of providing minors with “obscene” content will lose their educational credentials and state licensing, forfeit their retirement benefits and will be placed on a “do not hire” list. The state will also require schools to post the bill online for parents to access.
“Also school districts will be required to provide parents with information and options for charter schools, magnet schools and other public schools as alternatives for their children,” Abbott said.
Former U.S. Secretary of Education Bill Bennett, who served under President Ronald Reagan, congratulated Abbott on the bill and reiterated the importance of parents involvement in classroom issues. He said the bill will likely be imitated in other states. “Not every teacher is a parent but every parent is a teacher,” Bennett said. “We know that the parents influence on the child is the greatest influence of any adult…We need to restore the priority of the parent to the classroom and to the child’s education which is what you are doing.”
Bennett also advised parents to not be “intimidated by the cult of expertise.” “When it comes to education of children, if you don’t understand what they’re talking about, you’re probably right and they’re probably wrong,” he said. “It’s not complicated what to teach children and what parents want schools to do is teach children how to read, write, count and think and develop reliable standards of right and wrong.”
Abbott’s action follows the lead of other Republican leaders across the U.S. who have issued similar bills. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a Parents Bill of Rights in June of 2021. The Intercultural Development Research Association, which has voiced opposition to Abbott’s “critical race theory” bill that went into effect in December, issued a statement Thursday denouncing the governor’s bill, calling it another coordinated attack on the rights of students, parents and teachers in public schools.
“All families must be part of building excellent and equitable schools regardless of their racial or ethnic background or socio-economic status,” the statement said. “Unfortunately, many schools have not prioritized or invested in developing authentic relationships with families, particularly those of color, those with limited incomes, and immigrant families.”
The IDRA also called out groups attempting to pit families and schools against each other with the goal of passing legislation that “whitewashes and simplifies” history.
“These groups, who purport to represent values such as ‘equality’ and ‘transparency’ are feeding some families inaccurate information about their schools and encouraging them to make harmful demands and violent interventions in school policymaking to advance policies that actually widen inequalities and exclusion,” the statement said. “They are pushing their economic, social, and political agendas under the name of ‘parent engagement.’ This is dangerous.”
Please notice it is the right wing ideas and parents that are being encouraged to interfere, given authority over the classroom, and are being touted as needing to tell schools what to teach. If you are progressive, believe in equality, understanding, and tolerance, then keep it to your self. This is simply an attempt to legalize brain washing kids into a right wing 1950’s agenda / propaganda. Remember get the kids young, drill into them to be good little republican worker bees and you got a bunch of future white supremacist running around. Not all kids will go that way, but look at the problems we have in the rural areas of red states where this basically has been done in their schools. The Christian white nationalist right wing Republican is a minority trying desperately to keep the power and advantage the had to continue to rule as they did. It is that simple. They are using the same tactics Putin used and farmed out to other authoritarian states to demonize and then erase LGBTQ+ people from their societies. They idea of no mask or never shutting schools is to keep the parents working. The wealthy lost a lot of profit of the workers, need to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Why is the only parents that matter over healthcare are the anti-maskers? Why do those kids get to make other kids / families sick? Also notice the constant slam that the educators and the educated are wrong. If you don’t understand what the teacher is saying then the teacher is wrong! Don’t trust science and facts, go with myth and make believe to again be a good dumb worker bee. Scottie
Let’s talk about Sinema, dollars, and sense….
CT Republican Elections Official Charged With Murder
Anti-Vax Man Dies Of Something In Texas After Family Sued Minnesota Hospital That Wanted To Pull The Plug
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports:
A severely ill COVID-19 patient flown from Minnesota to Texas during a legal battle over whether his ventilator should be turned off died Saturday.
Scott Quiner, who was unvaccinated, was being kept alive by the machine at Mercy Hospital in Coon Rapids, north of Minneapolis, after contracting COVID-19 in October. His family sued the hospital over a move to disconnect Quiner, and a judge issued a restraining order Jan. 13 blocking Mercy from turning off the machine.
Last weekend, the family flew Quiner to Texas, where he was being treated at a Houston hospital. He died Saturday morning. The family’s story drew national attention as the surge in COVID-19 patients strained hospitals across the country.
The New York Times reports:
On Jan. 12, Ms. Quiner pleaded for a lawyer’s help on the “Stew Peters Show,” a podcast whose host has falsely called coronavirus vaccines “poisonous shots” and given a platform to pandemic conspiracy theories.
She said that aside from her husband’s lungs, his organs were functioning and “there was nothing wrong with his brain.” Only a couple of days earlier, she said, her husband had opened his eyes “and was more alert.”
“I’m thinking, ‘Why are you killing him?’” said Ms. Quiner, whose husband had made her his health care agent in 2017. Under Minnesota law, that means she has the authority to make medical decisions on his behalf if he is unable to himself.
Daily cartoon / meme roundup: There is much more to life than work, and there should be in our advanced time.
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Scottie’s world today
For the first morning since last Sunday I feel almost normal. I have been sick for a week, Ron thinks we had a version of Covid. I don’t care what the name of the thing is all I know is it put me in my bed. I like my bed but not anywhere that much. But the roundup still got done. Ron said I was crazy and I told him it is an addiction to editorial cartoons. Scottie
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You can’t save democracy with seditious traitors, Christofascists, and white nationalists.
Would you work with bank robbers to protect a bank?
So it’s not the filibuster, it’s the Voting Rights Bill they are against. Unbelievably disgusting.
https://truth-has-a-liberal-bias.tumblr.com/post/674103618548400129
https://truth-has-a-liberal-bias.tumblr.com/post/674104099885793280
Republicans can’t defend their policies. Killing the political conversation is their mission.
Republican religion, nor their pro-life gaslight, will ever look to help the poor/vulnerable.
Helping the richest is their zero sum game.
Also, people like Putin create refugees through their military/foreign policy, [see Syria], yet conservatives love Putin.
By creating refugees, conservatives always have a boogeyman to frighten their base.
Conservative policies are about isolation and lonerism. Inclusion is a threat.
We are a society of different people, and that scares people who only value whiteness.
Empathy evolves in stages. Some people will always be stunted at the lower levels. Unfortunately, those at the lower levels can’t experience/see/feel what the people at the higher levels experience. That discrepancy between levels is what defines our current politics.
Under funding schools and education is criminal.
Teachers are long a target of conservative cuts. Teachers are 75% women.
We will never have strong communities until we invest in schools and teachers as core infrastructure. This is the foundation.
https://twitter.com/duffyink/status/1485106144855183362?s=20
The biggest threat to a cop is themselves. They make selfish decisions, then claim victimhood.
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Misleading right wing media cartoons / memes
Unfortunately, there are Not two sides of the same. The GOP Big Lie is a Fact… and So is their attempt at voter-suppression. The Dem side is a Big Truth, and should be noted as such. At least he has confessed the “Big Lie” to be a lie. That’s progress. His lame attempt to both-sides the dishonesty is no more blameworthy than the snarls of a cornered beast. With apologies to Upton Sinclair, It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his standing within his tribe depends upon his not understanding it. Scottie
Is that not the job of the press secretary? It has been done in every administration I can remember. Often it is a deliberate attempt to get a conversation going in the media or to change the Overton window. I would point out the prior administration went through a lot of press secretaries because they were required by their boss to flat out lie to back up his many lies. Scottie
Other than a small minority of cult like followers no one likes tRump nor wants him to run in 2024. More and more Republicans are openly saying it as tRump’s influence over the base is shrinking. The 2020 presidential election was not about Biden and his polices, but a referendum on tRump. tRump was rejected. He will be rejected by an even larger margin if he runs again. Scottie
The right wing media is desperate to bring Biden down. Think on it, what have the Republicans done they can brag about? They are reduced to lying about supporting bills they voted against. So they hammer on Biden’s poll numbers. It is partly the Biden’s peoples fault, they don’t brag enough on what they have accomplished, unlike the former guy who had to make most things up. Scottie
The distinction is extremely clear to me. If you don’t get it, try being a pregnant female. BEFORE birth, there’s a woman who has bodily autonomy or she’s less than a full human. AFTER birth there are two humans.
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And now some for fun
Daily cartoon / meme roundup: No one loves their health insurance company. They desperately need healthcare and live in a country that insists everyone make a profit for them to get it
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Scottie’s world today
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People deserve to have the right of free healthcare. It should be one of the main functions of the government to care for the well being of the people. Oh wait it is but that part is ignore in favor of profit. We need universal expanded Medicare for all
We gave tax cuts to ‘job creators’.
Don’t let the Republicans off the hook. Scottie
Justice Roberts, this shame is on you. Your legacy is that of vengeful racism. You destroyed voting rights for millions. You are the architect of undermining election integrity and global disenfranchisement of non-white voters.
https://twitter.com/AnaMardoll/status/1484566399116845062?s=20
Conservative policies are about isolation and lonerism. Inclusion is a threat.
We are a society of different people, and that scares people who only value whiteness.
Republicans have weaponized their fragile snowflake rhetoric to protect their own racism.
‘Don’t hurt my feelings’ is GOP top agenda.
Family values.
Loveless, humorless, moral blanks can survive with ease in conservative politics.
Just to protect whiteness.
https://twitter.com/RottenInDenmark/status/1484156541351735298?s=20
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Misleading right wing media cartoons / memes
Yeah, Lisa! Nothing worse than preventing the country from crumbling into the rubble of a third world nation! Good thing the Obstructionist party is hard at work preventing progress and making sure needless defense contracts keep getting filled! Scottie
Hillary has not even hinted at running. The right loves that they have made her such a boogieman after 30 years of attacks and they can not wait to trot her out to scare their base. It is that simple. No one in the Democratic party has wanted her to run again, it is just the left hoping to gin up outrage in the cult. Republicans had an opportunity to prevent this twice by voting to convict Trump. Republicans can also prevent Trump from running by taking him to task for his lies about voter fraud. They can also stop rigging the system in order to make it harder for people to vote and creating a situation where Republicans can overturn any election results they don’t like. Meanwhile, it is unlikely Hillary will be running since there is a Democrat in the White House. Besides what is the big deal? The Republican Party failed to lock her up, so it looks like she did nothing wrong. Scottie
I am seeing versions of this everywhere. It is very misleading. Democrats do not mind ID, but we are against the Republican ID requirements that make ID’s nearly impossible for some people to get and they accept only certain ID’s they think their voters might have no matter how obscure while denying popular forms of ID’s that Democratic voters might have. Scottie
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And now some for fun
This is BS propaganda. Abortions after gestational age of 21 weeks are extremely rare (<1%). They are fundamentally illegal unless medically necessary. The vast majority of those abortions are when the fetus is no longer viable. Overturning RvW most likely will not even ban these types of abortions more than they are now.
That fetus abandoned in the trash was most likely a baby that the mother had to conceal because she didn’t know what else to do. This is often caused by the stigma created by families about pregnancy outside of marriage by young women incapable of taking care of the child. It speaks to the fact that American society does less to encourage a mother to keep her child by supporting both the mother and child (the infamous “welfare mother” stigma). It’s so much easier for conservatives to punish the mother for getting an abortion and forcing her to carry the baby’s to terms and then abandon both mother and child. Scottie