The Wall Street firm told clients Sunday it no longer assumes President Joe Biden’s signature legislation will get through the narrowly divided Congress, citing the West Virginia Democrat’s announcement that he’s a “no” on the $1.75 trillion bill.
“A failure to pass BBB has negative growth implications,” Goldman Sachs economists, led by Jan Hatzius, said in the research report.
Citing the “apparent demise” of Build Back Better, Goldman Sachs now expects GDP to grow at an annualized pace of 2% in the first quarter, down from 3% previously.
The bank also trimmed its GDP forecasts for the second quarter to 3% (from 3.5% previously) and the third quarter to 2.75% (compared with 3% previously). It specifically pointed to the expiration of the child tax credit and the lack of the other new spending that had been anticipated
Goldman Sachs (GS) reiterated that upcoming inflation reports are not likely to help swing the tide back in favor of Build Back Better. The consumer price index (CPI) rose in November by 6.8% from the year earlier, the biggest 12-month jump in 39 years.
“With headline CPI reaching as high as 7% in the next few months in our forecast before it begins to fall, the inflation concerns that Sen. Manchin and others have already expressed are likely to persist, making passage more difficult,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote. “The omicron variant is also likely to shift political attention back to virus-related issues and away from long-term reforms.”
The lowered chances that Build Back Better has “negative implications for near-term consumption” but will likely have some “offsetting positive effects” for financial markets, Goldman Sachs said.
Specifically, the chances of corporate tax hikes have faded — and those higher tax bills would have eaten into the bottom lines of S&P 500 companies. It’s also a positive for biotech companies that would have been hit by $100 billion in price reductions in the Medicare program, Goldman Sachs said.
Still, Goldman Sachs said there is a chance that Congress passes a few smaller short-term provisions aimed at virus-related issues.
There is a lot of uncertainty over the fate of the expanded child tax credit that was a key part of Build Back Better and Goldman Sachs called this the “most important question for the near-term outlook.”
While there is “some chance” that Congress extends the credit retroactively, Goldman Sachs said “the odds of this happening seem to be less than even at this point.”
“@Sen_JoeManchin 's opposition to the Build Back Better Act prompted Goldman Sachs to swiftly dim its US economic outlook.”
"A failure to pass BBB has negative growth implications," Goldman Sachs economists said in the research report. https://t.co/oW59YOqCPE
At a minimum, we should be clear at this point that the most important Dem opposition to Biden's agenda is a guy who owns a mansion and a yacht opposing a measure that has cut child poverty in half despite representing one of the poorest states in the country, because WELFARE
Something the anti-woke, savvy pundits, strategists and others struggle with: The reality that a lot of folks in red states like mine literally believe government help makes people lazy and dependent. 1/ https://t.co/egO3ZMCM4b via @HuffPostPol
“In recent months, Manchin has told several of his fellow Democrats that he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit payments on drugs instead of providing for their children” https://t.co/UnsELqt7b4
In Hong Kong 30% voter turnout is seen as protest against one party rule. In Philly, last election was about20% turnout—resignation to our one-party rule. pic.twitter.com/0x0xyvSpXR
In area after area—campaign finance, union organizing, equal protection, having a day in court, voting rights & now Roe—this extremist Supreme Court is willing to ignore decades of settled law.
Florida's Gov Desantis is proposing a law letting parents and children sue schools for teaching "CRT." Previous Florida laws have defined "CRT" very broadly.
Trends in California’s violent crime rate since 2000 broadly mirror trends in the nationwide rate. However, the state saw greater declines in the first decade of 2000, and in 2020 the state saw a drop in violent crime while the nation overall experienced an increase of about 5%. Today, while the state’s violent crime rate is still above the national rate, the gap has dropped by half, from about 20% higher in California to 10% higher. Both California’s and the nation’s violent crime rates are now roughly where they were a decade ago.
Lie, out right lie. Fictional CBO for stupid gullible Republicans. The real BBB bill was not going to add any thing to the deficit. It was completely paid for. The Republicans demanded the CBO score the bill with a bunch of additions that were not in the bill. They made stuff up and demanded a real score on that made up stuff. Those are just “inflated” numbers. It really costs “nothing”. Did Trump’s wall cost anything? GOP says “No”! Did Trump’s tax cut for the wealthy cost anything? GOP says “No”! Did Trump’s complete redesign of Mar A Largo cost anything? GOP, again, says “NO”. Well, there you are. Did Biden’s new pencil cup cost anything? GOP cries “YES”!
That score is fictional. It’s the assessment of what would happen if everything in the bill were made permanent. It’s the same score that was given to the Republican tax cuts IF all of the tax cuts were made permanent. That’s why the GOP made the tax cuts to the bottom 99% phase out starting in 2023. The tax cuts to the top 1% are permanent and it only added $2 trillion to the deficit. Facts matter. It’s the time-honored tactic of “republicans”. Lie about an issue over and over again until enough people believe your lie.
• Joe Biden said “nobody’s going to build another coal-fired plant in America” during the first presidential debate.
• He said under the Obama administration, he brought the cost of renewable energy down to “cheaper than or as cheap as” coal, gas and oil, and his energy plan states that “marketplace competition has continued to shift this country away from coal-fired electricity.”
• His climate action plan does not include a ban on coal. Biden’s climate plan acknowledges existing coal plants as part of the country’s energy portfolio.
Assange is being charged with espionage and computer hacking, not sedition. As you pointed out, he is not an American citizen and so a sedition charge would be nonsense.
The new set of counts immediately raised alarms among press freedom advocates, who argue that charging Assange with violations of the Espionage Act could set a dangerous precedent for journalists. Assange was charged with 17 new criminal counts: One count of conspiracy to receive national defense information, three counts of obtaining national defense information and 13 counts of disclosure of national defense information.
The U.S. has never successfully prosecuted a non-government official for publishing or sharing unlawfully leaked classified information, University of Chicago Law Professor Geoffrey Stone told NBC News. Some press freedom groups and other people and entities defending Assange were quick to protest the new charges. “This strikes at the heart of the First Amendment and puts all journalists in extreme danger,” The Freedom of the Press Foundation said in a tweet Thursday afternoon.
Goldman Sachs trimmed its quarterly GDP forecasts for 2022, after U.S. Senator Joe Manchin withdrew his support to U.S. President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion domestic investment bill. The fact is the BBB would have added to the economy, added more jobs, increased money flow in the public, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, added needed internet capacity to areas where it is deficient, and so much more. The BBB was paid for and wouldn’t add to the debt. The BBB is good for the people and the country, but it was killed by greed and bigotry.
remember that Manchin killed the child tax credit because he thinks poor people are lazy, won’t work, and willjust spend the money on drugs. Asshole fucking multimillionaire
I had this idea a couple months ago and put it aside. I may have even included it in one of my batches of roughs, so it’s possible you’ve already seen this idea. But after passing it over, I decided to save it for another day. I knew it was going to come up. I knew one of the Trump goons would testify and invoke his Fifth Amendment rights. Yesterday, that happened.
First, in case you’re a dum-dum, then you need to know what rights and protections are included in the Fifth Amendment. There are five. It gives you the right to a fair trial. It gives you the right to a jury trial. It protects you from double jeopardy (can’t be tried for the same crime twice). It protects you from the government taking your property without compensation. Finally, it protects you from self-incrimination.
Joe Manchin is going to destroy the Build Back Better Bill. After negotiating with President Joe Biden all week on the Build Back Better legislation, Manchin has now said no. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said his comments “are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances.”
Manchin says he can’t support the bill because of inflation, rising debt and a mismatch between the package’s 10-year funding and its shorter-term programs. The bill doesn’t have anything to do with inflation or the rising debt. It’s to be paid over ten years, by taking away “some” of the tax cuts Trump gave to billionaires, with many of the programs lasting beyond a decade. Manchin, just like his nimrod Democratic colleague in the Senate, Kyrsten Sinema, is saying no just because they like to say “no.” It gives them power…
Oh crap, just realized I never finished the roundup. Ron and I got talking and doing things and when I went back to the computer I seen the roundup had not been finished or posted. Oh well lovers / spouses / other family members are allowed to interrupt. Besides he bought me the new Halo game! I spent late last night playing. Oh yeah! Hugs
People weren't making this connection before? I always thought that was kind of the point: the Federation were what we *could* be but the Cardassians, Ferengi, etc were what we are. https://t.co/MnlORo9jqZ
I posted it here because there was a time in our life when Ron and I had to figure a tip into if we could afford to go out to eat. During those lean years we would order something on the lower cost side of the menu because we need to save the extra for the tip. The US system is stupid. I have eaten in Canada and in Germany and in some few restaurants in the US where tipping is not only not required but actively discouraged. The wait staff get their pay through their paycheck, not the generosity of the patrons. That is how it should be. But what we understand is that the US is not ready to accept workers as equal partners in the corporate scheme of profit making. Yet during Covid we have found that with out workers being willing to risk themselves to do the work, the wealthy job creators couldn’t make the profit. Why if they were so powerful and great couldn’t they do it with out the lowly workers? Because it is a falsehood and myth that the wealthy and the large corporations make the world work, it is the workers that give them the profits that make them wealthy. Hugs
A Christmas request for fewer stories on what Manchin’s announcement means for Joe Biden and more on what it means for families who will lose the child tax credit they’ve come to depend on. POTUS is not the center of the universe.
Nothing, which is why it was a mistake to yield so much power to Manchin. Biden should’ve been using his bully pulpit as president & engaging in relentless campaign to make Manchin’s position untenable. He should be signing executive orders everywhere possible. He’s not a fighter https://t.co/oD7838JqFd
Let’s be clear: Manchin’s excuse is bullshit. The people of West Virginia would directly benefit from childcare, pre-Medicare expansion, and long term care, just like Minnesotans.
This is exactly what we warned would happen if we separated Build Back Better from infrastructure. https://t.co/dhzcSk0qUV
Does it matter that Manchin lied to members of his own party? And why is it so easy for moderate and centrist pundits to believe he cares more about the poor and working-class more than the progressives who’ve fought tooth and nail to pass policies to help those groups? https://t.co/5yxGiKTlWl
This is the easiest way for a man to commit suicide. Hugs
A lot to process on the Manchin news but, from a substantive standpoint, it's just objectively devastating for the planet. The last best chance at climate change legislation is gone
Manchin is a conservative running as a Democrat. He’s an asshole who taught his kid to hike prices ten-fold on desperately needed pharmaceutical products. He’s a friend to big business. He’s a friend to the top-1%. He has a vested interest in keeping his constituents poor and ignorant. Manchin is true to who he is. Because investing in the country is far more “reckless” than flushing trillions down the toilet in an unwinnable foreign war. I know it doesn’t include a $2 trillion tax cut with no reduction in spending that he had no problems with a couple years ago…or a couple of not budgeted wars from the party of “fiscal responsibility” that I also don’t remember a lot of complaints about. Apparently Manchin went back on his word just like his republigoon thug masters and sycophants and apologists tend to do. He doesn’t care. Mitch McConnell said it’s bad, so he doesn’t need to know anything else. Anyone what to bet that if a Republican gets elected next time, and asks congress for a huge amount that everyone knows will bust both the budget and debt; that both the Senate and House will roll over and give the President whatever they ask for? And that Joe Manchin will be breaking his neck to sign the bill first?
It’s not inflationary. That is already happening without the BBB. Try again. “Goldman Sachs has cut its U.S. growth forecast again, citing Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s assertion that he won’t back President Joe Biden’s key $2 trillion spending bill.”Dow down 500+. That is the important point. Every measure said it would improve the US economy and would lower inflation while boosting the US production via infrastructure improvements. But the Republicans don’t want that as they want to be able to blame Biden for the lack of benefits to the people, again caused by Republicans. Manchin according to reporting feels lower incomes, workers, and the poor are lazy louts who deserve nothing and if the government helps them, if the government lifts them out of poverty then they not only wont work but will use the money instead of for food and housing for their children to taking drugs and boozing. It is the old Reagan era bull shit where the wealthy are somehow better than the poor, the wealthy are more moral, better and more deserving. Yet it is a fantasy created by the wealthy. It is like saying that every religious person is better and more moral that a non-religious person. The fact is meritocracy is a myth, the US is not a place where if you just work hard you can be a millionaire. But what pisses me off is that the Republicans and the right wing media want the US to fail and people to be hurt or political gain.
Sen. Manchin finds himself in the catbird seat, which makes him seem like the Dem Czar. He’s hated by his Dem colleagues, adored by the Repubs, though they can’t wait to replace him with one of their own, but supported by big coal in his home state of W. Virginia. And oddly enough, almost everything about BBB would greatly benefit his state as does the infrastructure bill, which he worked against. So, now, he has become the deal maker that Dump could’ve only dreamed of being.
Bottom line, there is inflation, but it’s inflation because of the lowest unemployment in years and an economy on the move. Republicans and their ministers of propaganda on Faux will, of course, blame Democrats. It’s all they have since they don’t have any answers themselves. I believe a majority of people will understand this if you explain it to them. Manchin said he would not vote for the Bill because he couldn’t explain it to his constituents. I wonder if he can explain his huge houses, house-boat, and all his coal company stocks to his constituents more easily? Hugs
In the old days this is something both of us would do, to have a surprise present appear in the future. It was kind of nice if embarrassing. Now we simply check with each other and get what we want when we want it, which we both find much more satisfying. Hugs
Scottie's Playtime 