Data: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Chart: Axios Visuals
Former President Trump ranup the national debt by about twice as much as President Biden, according to a new analysis of their fiscal track records.
Why it matters: The winner of November’s election faces a gloomy fiscal outlook, with rapidly rising debt levels at a time when interest rates are already high and demographic pressure on retirement programs is rising.
Both candidates bear a share of the responsibility, as each added trillions to that tally while in office.
But Trump’s contribution was significantly higher, according to the fiscal watchdogs at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, thanks to both tax cuts and spending deals struck in his four years in the White House.
By the numbers: Trump added $8.4 trillion in borrowing over a ten-year window, CRFB finds in a report out this morning.
Biden’s figure clocks in at $4.3 trillion with seven months remaining in his term.
If you exclude COVID relief spending from the tally, the numbers are $4.8 trillion for Trump and $2.2 trillion for Biden.
State of play: For Trump, the biggest non-COVID drivers of higher public debt were his signature tax cuts enacted in 2017 (causing $1.9 trillion in additional borrowing) and bipartisan spending packages (which added $2.1 trillion).
For Biden, major non-COVID factors include 2022 and 2023 spending bills ($1.4 trillion), student debt relief ($620 billion), and legislation to support health care for veterans ($520 billion).
Biden deficits have also swelled, according to CRFB’s analysis, due to executive actions that changed the way food stamp benefits are calculated, expanding Medicaid benefits, and other changes that total $548 billion.
Between the lines: Deficit politics may return to the forefront of U.S. policy debates next year.
Much of Trump’s tax law is set to expire at the end of 2025, and the CBO has estimated that fully extending it would increase deficits by $4.6 trillion over the next decade.
High interest rates make the taxpayer burden of both existing and new debt higher than it was during the era of near-zero interest rates.
And the Social Security trust fund is rapidly hurtling toward depletion in 2033, which would trigger huge cuts in the retirement benefits absent Congressional action.
What they’re saying: “The next president will face huge fiscal challenges,” CRFB president Maya MacGuineas tells Axios.
“Yet both candidates have track records of approving trillions in new borrowing even setting aside the justified borrowing for COVID, and neither has proposed a comprehensive and credible plan to get the debt under control,” she said.
“No president is fully responsible for the fiscal challenges that come along, but they need to use the bully pulpit to set the stage for making some hard choices,” MacGuineas said.
A Texas law that banned abortions in early pregnancy is associated with a stark increase in infant and newborn deaths, a study published Monday in JAMA Pediatrics found.
Lawmakers passed Texas Senate Bill 8, or SB8, in September 2021. The state law banned abortions as soon as a fetal heartbeat is detected, which can be as early as five weeks. This effectively banned abortion in the state, which used to allow abortion up to 22 weeks of pregnancy.
The law did not include exemptions for congenital anomalies, including conditions that will cause a newborn to die soon after birth. Infant deaths in Texas rose by nearly 13% the year after SB8 was passed, from 1,985 in 2021 to 2,240 in 2022. During that same period, infant deaths rose by about 2% nationwide.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s office did not dispute the study’s findings but defended the Republican-controlled state’s anti-abortion record. This effort included the 2021 heartbeat law “to save the innocent unborn, and now thousands of children have been given a chance at life,” Andrew Mahaleris, a spokesperson for Abbott, said in a statement to USA TODAY.
He said the governor has taken “significant action to protect the sanctity of life” and offered resources to expectant mothers “so they can choose life for their child.”
Anti-abortion advocates also didn’t contest the uptick in infant deaths cited in the study. Advocates for the heartbeat law and other legislation to restrict abortions say such bans protect life. They say terminating a fetus with a terminal illness is “choosing to kill that child intentionally.” However, the overwhelming majority of such abortions happen before the fetus is viable.
New: Infant deaths rose after Texas’ 2021 heartbeat law restricted abortions before the SCOTUS Dobbs decision two years ago, per a JAMA Pediatrics study published today out of @JohnsHopkinsSPH. Texas anti-abortion activists don’t dispute the findings. https://t.co/xeNpxrNk1n
Brilliant! This reinforces my assertion that pro-lifers prioritize fetal life above all life on earth. From a theological perspective, they need to be continually challenged on that but never are.
The religious right Republicans don’t give a hoot about the child/infant. It’s all about control. Once the birth has occurred, they quickly forget about the individual. Republicans seek to stop benefits for the poor, provide little to no education unless it is religion based, Let’s not forget about the abundance of guns that can whip out whole classrooms of children and the death penalty. Need I say more?
A trip to Mar-a-Lago taken by former President Donald Trump that aides allegedly “kept quiet” just weeks before FBI agents searched the property for classified materials in his possession raised suspicions among special counsel Jack Smith’s team as a potential additional effort to obstruct the government’s classified documents investigation, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News.
The previously unreported visit, which allegedly took place July 10-12 in the summer of 2022, was raised in several interviews with witnesses, sources familiar with the matter said, as investigators sought to determine whether it was part of Trump’s broader alleged effort to withhold the documents after receiving a subpoena demanding their return.
MORE: Special counsel questioned witnesses about 2 rooms FBI didn’t search inside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence: Sources
At least one witness who worked closely with the former president recalled being told at the time of the trip that Trump was there “checking on the boxes,” according to sources familiar with what the witness told investigators.
Trump pleaded not guilty last year to 40 criminal counts related to his handling of classified materials after leaving the White House, after prosecutors said he repeatedly refused to return hundreds of documents containing classified information and took steps to thwart the government’s efforts to get them back. His longtime aide, Walt Nauta, and Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos De Oliveira pleaded not guilty to related charges.
Trump has denied all charges and denounced the probe as a political witch hunt.
Gathering evidence
Several witnesses who spoke to investigators described the trip as highly unusual, given that Trump typically spends the summer months at his Bedminster club in New Jersey, and because Trump’s living quarters at his Mar-a-Lago property were under construction at the time of the visit, sources said.
Other witnesses who were questioned by Smith’s team said they were led to believe that Trump returned to check on the status of the renovations, said sources.
In this June 9, 2017, file photo, President Donald Trump is shown at the White House in Washington, D.C.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, FILE
Just weeks before the trip, as ABC News has previously reported, Trump allegedly had the lock on a closet in his residence changed while his attorney was in Mar-a-Lago’s basement searching for classified documents in a storage room that he was told contained all such documents. The FBI failed to check the locked closet in Trump’s residence when they searched the estate in August 2022, which some investigators later came to believe should have been done.
The trip came as investigators were gathering evidence that Trump continued to possess classified documents, and followed a separate subpoena in late June 2022 seeking surveillance footage from Mar-a-Lago that showed aides to Trump moving boxes between a storage room in the resort and his residence.
The trip also followed a similar instance of unplanned travel to Mar-a-Lago by Nauta, where, according to a superseding indictment, he is alleged to have conspired with Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos De Oliveira to attempt to delete security camera footage.
Contacted by ABC News, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung, without providing evidence, accused prosecutors of lying and illegally leaking material.
“The entire documents case was a political sham from the very beginning and it should be thrown out entirely,” Cheung said in comments to ABC News.
A spokesperson for the special counsel’s office declined to comment to ABC News.
‘Keeping this one quiet’
At the time of Trump’s trip in July 2022, some staff expressed confusion as to where Trump would even stay on the property, sources said, given the renovations that his living quarters were undergoing.
“They were keeping this one quiet … nobody knew about this trip,” one witness with direct knowledge of the trip told investigators, according to sources familiar with the witness’ statements.
Trump left New Jersey on July 9, 2022, for a campaign rally in Anchorage, Alaska, and was scheduled to return to New Jersey following that event, according to aircraft manifests described by sources to ABC News. But the plans changed in the days immediately leading up to the trip and he decided to fly to Florida instead, updated aircraft manifests of the trip show.
According to sources, investigators involved in the case identified what they believe to be a series of unusual steps taken by Trump and members of his inner circle to ensure the trip stayed under the radar.
Nauta, who traveled with Trump on the trip, sent a number of text messages to close staff members indicating that the Florida visit was to be kept quiet, according to sources familiar with the contents of the messages.
“I’m pretty sure [Trump] wants minimal people around on Monday,” Nauta texted one longtime Trump employee just one day before Trump arrived in Florida, according to a message sources detailed to ABC News.
And on July 8, when one Trump Organization employee reached out to Nauta wanting to confirm rumors of a Trump visit so proper preparations could be made, Nauta made clear he wanted the trip to remain “discreet,” sources familiar with the communications said. The sources said Nauta sent a text message to the employee that included emojis with zippers over the mouth, which is often used to convey a secret.
MORE: Trump’s attorneys seek to invalidate appointment of special prosecutor Jack Smith
Nauta also wrote a message to De Oliveira on July 7 that said “Coming down to FL soon” with shushing emojis to indicate the visit be kept quiet, according to another text message described by sources.
De Oliveira initially told investigators that he had no knowledge of Trump’s trip to Florida — but the special counsel has evidence that supports the allegation De Oliveira was well aware of Trump’s travel plans, corroborated in part by security camera footage that shows Trump and De Oliveira together, according to sources familiar with De Oliveira’s meetings with investigators.
De Oliveira later told investigators he recalled seeing the former president very briefly during that trip, sources said.
Smith’s interest in the trip adds to the list of instances in which investigators appeared to suspect Trump was seeking to obstruct their probe.
Last month, a court filing from Smith’s team revealed additional steps prosecutors believed Trump and his associates had taken to obstruct their probe, alleging that after Trump was informed by his attorney of a government subpoena for video footage from Mar-a-Lago, Trump instructed aides to return several boxes they had previously removed from the storage room in the club’s basement — without being caught on camera.
This is another example of Christian love. Seriously this is what the LGBTQ+ face in the attempt to turn the US into a Christian theocracy. How is he different from the Taliban? How does he differ from the Iranian moral vice police? Is this really the world you want to live under? Where your friends, maybe your child is being singled out for death because they were born gay and don’t fit the leader’s idea of what is good for god? My god this is what passes for statesmanship, for leadership, for civil discourse in the republican party. Think how far we have fallen to even think this rhetoric is acceptable in public. I don’t like what you are doing so I think it is OK to kill you. One last thought, why is a pride flag or rainbow sticker on the door or wall of a classroom indoctrination but the Christian religious symbols / ten commandments are not? WTF. Hugs. Scottie
“Our nation is at a crossroads. Our enemies are operating in plain sight. Evil is on the march and they’re not even trying to hide it. Satanic forces are taking over our schools, preying on our children with transgender surgeries and Drag Queen Story Hours.
“South Carolina is being invaded by terrorists and drug cartels. Our enemies in China are waging economic warfare against every American, making it impossible to afford to live here, to buy groceries, gas, or even pay the light bill.
“And traitor Joe Biden’s far-left Department of Defense is working to destroy our military from within.
“D.C. is taking our tax dollars and using it to fund the takeover. Let me say that again: American taxpayers are paying for the destruction of their own nation.
“Look at Iran and Afghanistan. We must hold responsible those elected officials who take our hard-earned dollars to use them to do battle against us.
“It is treason, plain and simple.” – South Carolina pastor Mark Burns, in a final ad before tomorrow’s GOP primary runoff, the winner of which will surely become a US House member.
In 2022, Burns, who has been endorsed by Trump, laid out his plan for executing LGBTQs for “grooming” during an appearance on the show hosted by Holocaust denier Stew Peters.
MAGA pastor Mark Burns released an ad before his GOP runoff election in S.C. tomorrow and it's predictably bonkers: "Any country that would spy on Christian church attendance is just one step away from all-out gun confiscation and totalitarian communism." https://t.co/ngj36AMc0Apic.twitter.com/JAe5q9qVtt
“D.C. is taking our tax dollars and using it to fund the takeover. ….”
Sure Jan.
South Carolina receives $4.51 back from the government for every $1 residents pay in federal tax, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Census Bureau, USAspending.gov and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Texas abortion ban linked to stark rise in infant and newborn deaths
“This might foreshadow what is happening in other states,” said Johns Hopkins public health researcher Alison Gemmill. “Texas is basically a year ahead.”
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday waded into the culture-war debate over gender-affirming care for transgender minors by agreeing to resolve challenges to a law in Tennessee that seeks to restrict it.
The justices will hear a Biden administration appeal of a court ruling that upheld the measure. Oral arguments and a ruling are expected in the court’s next term, which starts in October and ends in June 2025.
The case marks the first time the court will issue a ruling in the battle over transgender rights for teens, which has raged in both the health care and education contexts.
A young person holds a Pride Flag outside the House chambers before a legislative session, on Feb. 26, 2024, in Nashville, TN.George Walker IV / AP
“The future of countless transgender youth in this and future generations rests on this Court adhering to the facts, the Constitution and its own modern precedent,” said Chase Strangio, a lawyer at the American Civil Liberties Union, which also challenged the law.
The state measure restricts puberty blockers, hormone therapy and surgery for minors.
In a separate case, the court in April allowed Idaho to mostly enforce a similar law.
More than 20 states have enacted similar bans, according to the Movement Advancement Project, an LGBTQ rights think tank. Whatever the court rules will affect those states as well.
Major medical organizations say that gender-affirming treatments are an effective way of treating gender dysphoria, the clinical term given to the distress people can experience when their gender identity is in conflict with the gender assigned to them at birth.
Plaintiffs, including transgender teens and their families, say the law violates the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, which requires that the law apply equally to everyone, in part by barring medical treatments for transgender people that are available to others. They also say the law violates the right of parents to make health care decisions for their children.
Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar urged the Supreme Court to take up the issue, saying that the law “is part of a wave of similar bans preventing transgender adolescents from obtaining medical care that they, their parents, and their doctors have all concluded is necessary.”
A federal judge blocked the Tennessee ban on puberty blockers and hormone therapy but left in place a ban on surgeries.
In a separate Kentucky case the justices did not act on, a federal judge blocked the ban on puberty blockers and hormone therapy. The plaintiffs did not challenge the restrictions on surgery.
In a ruling addressing both laws, the Cincinnati-based 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the states in September.
Judge Jeffrey Sutton wrote that no one was questioning “the existence of gender dysphoria or the distress caused by it,” but indicated the question of what treatments should be available to those 17 or under should be left to elected officials.
“This is a relatively new diagnosis with ever-shifting approaches to care over the last decade or two. Under these circumstances, it is difficult for anyone to be sure about predicting the long-term consequences of abandoning age limits of any sort for these treatments,” he wrote.
The plaintiffs then asked the Supreme Court to step in. The court has until now largely stayed out of disputes involving transgender students.
In 2021, the Supreme Court declined to take up a case about the question of whether transgender students can use school bathrooms that correspond with their gender identities as court battles have continued around the country. The court turned away a similar case in January.
On a related issue, the court last year allowed a transgender girl in West Virginia to participate in girls’ sports.
The court’s biggest intervention on trans issues writ large came in a surprise 6-3 ruling in 2020 written by conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch. He concluded that federal law that bars sex discrimination in employment protected transgender and gay people, a ruling that angered conservatives.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Friday signed into law a measure prohibiting ethics investigations from being launched until they are prompted by a complaint from someone with personal knowledge of the alleged wrongdoing. The measure (SB 7014) was widely opposed by government watchdog organizations who warned it will undermine state ethics laws at both the state and local levels.
“Let’s be clear: This has never been about minimizing frivolous complaints; this is about making complaints almost impossible,” said Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida, after DeSantis’s action. “Governor DeSantis says he believes that Floridians deserve protection from corruption, but his actions today speak otherwise,” she added. Those who backed the measure said complaints have been “weaponized” against candidates.
Born in the Senate Ethics Committee, the legislation purportedly seeks to limit time frames for investigating ethics complaints. It also requires public complaints be based entirely on a filer’s personal knowledge of wrongdoing, which sponsors said was to discourage “frivolous” complaints.
But critics say the bill will gut ethics enforcement completely, eliminating the ability to file anonymous complaints or tips that lead to investigations and uncover legitimate wrongdoing.
Jose Arrojo, Executive Director of the Miami-Dade Ethics Commission, voiced concerns that the new law could limit means of even bringing ethics concerns to the attention of officials. “No more anonymous whistleblowers. No more employees referring information to us,” Arrojo said.
Florida Gov. DeSantis signs legislation that makes it harder to file ethics complaints https://t.co/koNYW7oXBE
DeSantis just signed a controversial ethics bill that will result in less oversight in a state government where ethics are as rare as competent governors. https://t.co/v02kBswNtm
— Lesley Abravanel 🪩 (@lesleyabravanel) June 22, 2024
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis just signed a bill weakening the state's ethics laws.
SB 7014 will require all future ethics complaints to be based upon "personal knowledge."
It will also stop any local government ethics office from ever again self-initiating investigations.
DeSantis just signed a bill which restricts the ability for ethics boards to launch their own investigations, giving a green-light to public corruption in a state already plagued by public corruption scandals. He also did it late on a Friday night to minimize media coverage. https://t.co/6EDfAf4FaY
DeSantis Has been systematically undermining Florida sunshine laws during his entire tenure as governor. Of course he’s going to sign such a law—he, along with his Reputation legislature, is unethical.
“If I do it (my party does it), it’s ethical, & don’t you dare question it” Definitely “small government,” of “we the people” & not at all the controlling “deep state” they always blame on the other side…/s… “How dare you ask for my (a public servant) travel & meeting records…”
“Personal knowledge of the alleged wrongdoing” is a fancy name for giving themselves a license to commit ‘white collar crimes’, such as bribery, embezzlement, money laundering, wage theft, etc.
The sort of thing where the only person who knows of the offense itself is the person(s) committing it, but everyone else can certainly bear witness to the after effects of it.
Scottie's Playtime 