New data shows violent crime dropping sharply in major U.S. cities

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/12/violent-crime-harris-trump-election

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

New preliminary data from major U.S. cities shows a sharp drop in violent crime in the first half of the year — more than 25% in some communities — as the COVID-era crime wave recedes.

Why it matters: The drop in violent crime puts a serious dent in one of the most frequently used lines of attack by former President Trump and his allies, who have sought to tie Democrats to the issue since 2020.

• It also gives Vice President Kamala Harris, a former prosecutor in San Francisco and California attorney general, a potent defense against attacks from the right on crime.

By the numbers: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found an overall 6% decline in violent crime among 69 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

• 54 of the 69 major cities in the report saw drops in violent crime — defined as homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — in the first half of 2024, according to the Axios review.
• Columbus, Ohio, experienced the largest percentage decline in violent crime in the nation, with a massive 41% drop so far in 2024. Omaha, Nebraska, was second with a 30% decrease.
• Miami and Washington, D.C., so far, have seen 29% declines in violent crime.
• Austin, Texas, saw a 28% drop, followed by New Orleans with a 26% decrease. Both cities have been under fire for rising crime rates in recent years.

The intrigue: The Axios review also found that the number of homicides in the 69 reported cities fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the last period last year.

• Boston experienced a dramatic 78% drop in homicides.
• Philadelphia was among others that saw a big fall in homicides, with a 42% decrease in 2024.

Between the lines: The Major Cities Chiefs Association’s preliminary data did not include New York City — the nation’s largest city — since it did not submit violent crime numbers to the organization for the first half of 2024.

• Data from New York City, which is released on its own website, couldn’t be compared to other cities in this report.
• The NYPD’s communications team — seeking to shape discourse around crime in New York — has taken a substantially more aggressive stance with politicians, the media and members of the public this year.

 

State of play: President Biden immediately seized on the new preliminary violent crime numbers showing a decline to tout the Our American Rescue Plan’s assistance to police and gun violence legislation.

• “Americans are safer today than when Vice President Harris and I took office,” Biden said in a statement.
• “I will continue to urge Congress to fund 100,000 additional police officers and crime prevention and community violence intervention programs, and make commonsense gun safety reforms such as a ban on assault weapons.”

The other side: Trump has repeatedly posted misleading claims on social media that Harris has helped free people the Trump campaign described as dangerous criminals, according to the Washington Post.

• “Harris is a pro-criminal extremist,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told the Post.
• Trump also has falsely claimed that many migrants who have or are trying to cross the border are coming from mental institutions and will commit violent crimes in large numbers.

Reality check: An Axios review of crime data along the U.S.-Mexico border found that those cities have some of the nation’s lowest violent crime rates.

The bottom line: Facts and data about crime are important, but history shows political campaigns can ignore the facts to exploit people’s fears about crime to change the narrative.