As Ten Bears has reported-

How climate risks are driving up insurance premiums around the US – visualized

‘Tight correlation’ between premium rises and counties deemed most at risk from climate crisis, experts say

Concern over the climate crisis may evaporate in the White House from January, but its financial costs are now starkly apparent to Americans in the form of soaring home insurance premiums – with those in the riskiest areas for floods, storms and wildfires suffering the steepest rises of all.

A mounting toll of severe hurricanes, floods, fires and other extreme events has caused average premiums to leap since 2020, with parts of the US most prone to disasters bearing the brunt. A climate crisis is starting to stir an insurance crisis.

Across all US counties, those in the top fifth for climate-driven disaster risk saw home premiums leap by 22% in just three years to 2023, compared to an overall average of a 13% rise in real terms, research of mortgage payment data has found. The Guardian has analyzed the study’s data to illustrate the places in the US at highest risk from disasters and insurance hikes. (snip)

“This has been the canary in the climate coalmine, and it’s now hitting households’ pocketbooks,” said Ben Keys, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and co-author of the research. “You can deny climate change for whatever motivations you have but when insurance is going up because you live in a risky area, that’s hard to deny.” (snip-MORE)

The graphics on this article are Amazing, and should be seen. But I couldn’t get them to embed this time, so please click through.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/05/climate-crisis-insurance-premiums

Peace & Justice History for 12/6

https://www.peacebuttons.info/E-News/peacehistorydecember.htm#december6

A Poem on Friday

How Some of Us Survived Cuando El Mundo Did Not Want Us

(Find out more about this poem and this poet by clicking above.)

Emanuel Xavier

In the shadows of city lights, we dwelled,
untold stories, almas olvidadas,
enduring streets where dreams were bought and sold.

Corazones—like broken glass,
reflecting pain, the sting of scorn,
searching for love en la oscuridad.

Walking the piers—our runway, steps unsure,
inocencia pérdida seeking solace, grace,
amidst the chaos, makeshift homes.

Voices silenced, cries ignored,
por un mundo that turned a blind eye,
yet we found familia in our souls.

Remember these legends,
children marked by endless strife,
love soaring entre el odio.

In this lucha, there was truth,
in this love, there was vida,
in this survival, there was hope.

Poetry: “A Cuban Modernist in Miami”

Adrian Castro

Transcendental poses are fractured by migration
In Rafael Soriano’s chimeras
dreams transpire through the electric human
A body can pitch several lingams—
there is only one home
as it returns from another journey
a new sunrise
an orange memory
hand pointing the indigo way inward
A conjurer throws a fistful of lips
five teeth tell the sunburst story . . .

When we search for an object
there is only finding the quest
it is after all
like that—
you merge you speak
there is art
& you find your way home
inside the infinite

Peace & Justice History for 12/5

(Barfbag alert for the 2002 entry. But it is US history.)

https://www.peacebuttons.info/E-News/peacehistorydecember.htm#december5

And now the unions who supported Republicans see what they get for that-

‘Gut punch’: Trump upsets local union leaders by opposing U.S. Steel-Nippon deal

RYAN DETO | Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024 2:28 p.m.

On Monday night, President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his opposition to the proposed $14.9 billion sale of U.S. Steel to Japan’s Nippon Steel Co., vowing to block the deal when he takes office.

Some steelworkers in Pittsburgh’s Mon Valley who support the deal — and Trump — weren’t happy.

“I am very frustrated with the news that came out last night,” United Steelworkers Local 2227 Vice President Jason Zugai said during a panel discussion Tuesday in Washington, D.C. “I didn’t expect that to come out. So that was like a gut punch.”

The local represents hundreds of workers at U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin.

Zugai, Local 2227 President Jack Maskil and West Mifflin Mayor Chris Kelly met with politicians Tuesday to lobby them to approve the sale, which has come under scrutiny from Republicans and Democrats alike.

Leaders in both parties, including President Joe Biden and both of Pennsylvania’s U.S. senators, oppose the deal on national security grounds. Many believe the iconic Pittsburgh company should remain domestically owned.

Also standing in opposition is the leadership of the United Steelworkers. Its president, David McCall, told TribLive last month that despite fractures among his membership, he remains firmly against any deal.

McCall said he has little faith that Nippon will make good on promises to pour $1 billion into the Mon Valley Works, which some analysts say needs at least that much money to remain competitive.

Maskil, the local president, acknowledged that when the U.S. Steel-Nippon pact was first proposed in December 2023, he and other steelworkers were skeptical. Those concerns began to fade, however, after Nippon Vice Chairman Takahiro Mori met with local steelworkers and Mon Valley elected officials in October.

Maskil told the panel convened by the Hudson Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank, that 95% of the employees at the Irvin Works now support the Nippon purchase. He suspects that a majority of workers across all three Mon Valley facilities back the deal.

There are more than 3,000 union steelworkers across the three facilities in the Mon Valley Works.

Outreach to Shapiro

Zugai said he attended Trump rallies in Westmoreland County and Pittsburgh in the run-up to the election, even meeting with the president-elect at one, and helped organize steelworkers to attend.

Trump did not mention any opposition to the U.S. Steel-Nippon deal at those rallies. Zugai said Trump told him then that he would take another look at the deal after he won the election.

Zugai said he was hopeful Trump would eventually support it after speaking with Mon Valley workers and members of Mon Valley communities.

Kelly, the West Mifflin mayor, poked fun at Trump for not coming around to their side. He said he has yet to hear from any national politician about a plan to invest in the Mon Valley plants if the deal with Nippon is blocked.

“Maybe he has concepts of a plan,” Kelly said about Trump, referencing an often-mocked line from Trump during the September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris when discussing health care.

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, a body responsible for evaluating the national security implications of foreign investments in American companies, is weighing the sale.

The committee’s deadline to issue a determination on the sale is Dec. 23.

In the meantime, Zugai said, local supporters like himself have been trying to persuade politicians to back the deal.

He said he spoke with Gov. Josh Shapiro’s office and came away feeling that the governor is trying to help push the deal through.

Shapiro, at a stop in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, confirmed that Zugai has met with members of his team.

The Democratic governor didn’t express outright support for the U.S. Steel-Nippon proposal but said he is trying to ensure a deal that keeps steel jobs in the Mon Valley.

“I have been where I have always been. I have been convening people to the table, with all the relevant parties, to try and see if there is some deal to be had that will protect the jobs in Western Pennsylvania and, importantly, have a future for steelmaking in the Mon Valley,” Shapiro said.

A report by Bloomberg indicated that Shapiro has spoken with Nippon’s Mori and Biden about the sale.

Shapiro didn’t confirm those reports and said he would rather not divulge the details of private conversations. He added, though, that he felt the need to get involved in the sale because he lacks faith in U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt.

“If we leave this just to Dave Burritt alone, he is going to do what he has been doing, and what he promises to do — and that is to move jobs out of Western Pennsylvania,” Shapiro said. “My approach all along has been to bring people to the table, see what we can do to find common ground, and see what we can do to protect these jobs and create future opportunities.”

Ryan Deto is a TribLive reporter covering politics, Pittsburgh and Allegheny County news. A native of California’s Bay Area, he joined the Trib in 2022 after spending more than six years covering Pittsburgh at the Pittsburgh City Paper, including serving as managing editor. He can be reached at rdeto@triblive.com.

https://triblive.com/news/politics-election/gut-punch-trump-upsets-local-union-leaders-by-opposing-us-steel-nippon-deal/

A Post I Didn’t Get Done Yesterday

So here it is today. Lots of info; I think I got the link from Joyce Vance’s Substack.

How Jeff Bezos Smothered Pete Hegseth News because Hunter Biden Was Pardoned of Already Declined Charges

It is not a short piece, but is worthy of the time.

A new model accurately predicts the migration of humpback whale

Jasper de Bie, Griffith University

This year’s humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) season in Australia has almost come to an end. The beloved mammals are on their way to Antarctica for a summer of feeding. Next year from April onwards, millions of people will again witness their movements and acrobatic displays – either from the coast or by joining one of the hundreds of whale-watch boat operators.

But as much as we like to watch humpback whales, we still know very little about them. They are notoriously difficult to study in the field. While they are known for their surface activities, they spend most of their time underwater and outside the range of direct observations.

One of the biggest mysteries of all is how these animals make decisions to determine what they do and where they go.

This is where our new research, published in Marine Mammal Science, comes in. We developed a model which effectively captures key humpback whale behaviours and their resulting southward migratory movements in east Australia. It can help anticipate challenges whales may face in the future. In turn, it may aid efforts to better conserve these majestic animals.

A humpback whale comeback

Following the end of commercial whaling, the worldwide recovery of humpback whale populations has been very successful. In Australia, the species was removed from the threatened species list in 2022.

However, scientists fear the effects of climate change may now be the biggest threat to their survival.

Our previous research examined which environmental factors matter in humpback whale ecology. For instance, while water temperature may have little impact in the cold Antarctic waters, breeding grounds further north that are too warm could drive humpback whales to seek better conditions elsewhere.

Currently we rely on satellite tags to inform us of their large-scale whereabouts. But unfortunately, this provides little information on humpback whale activities on a smaller scale, such as how they socialise, hunt, or react to specific conditions.

Map of australia and antarctica with arrows indicating migration patterns of different whale species. — *Humpback whales migrate throughout the year between Antarctica and northern Australia*. NPWS/DPIE

Movements through space and time

To address this, we turned to computer models, as these can deal with scarce or inconsistently collected data. In particular, “agent-based” models are designed to capture the behavioural response of an agent (in this case, a pod consisting of a humpback whale mother and one calf) to the environmental conditions they encounter. Based on this information, the models then project movements through space and time.

We developed the first such model to simulate migratory movements of humpback whale mother and calf pods between the Great Barrier Reef and the Gold Coast bay. Along this route is Hervey Bay, an important resting area due to its calm and sheltered waters, where the pairs may stay for up to a few weeks before continuing migration.

As humpback whales are almost always sighted in waters between 15 and 200 metres deep and below 28°C, we took a simple yet reasonable approach where we assumed they avoided waters too shallow, deep, or warm as they swam southwards.

This “avoidance” response would be similar to us going indoors when it is too hot outside or raining heavily: a simple decision to move away from somewhere we are not comfortable.

A combo of current and swimming speed

To estimate how fast whales were moving, we combined the speed of the current with an estimate of real-world swimming speeds by migrating mother and calf pairs along the Gold Coast.

Our simulations accurately predict the routes taken by migrating mother and calf pairs but point to a change in direction after Hervey Bay so whales remain close to the coastline.

Other research has shown that this “distance to shore” is an important variable to consider when studying humpback whales.

Results also highlight the importance of water depth when entering Hervey Bay and ensuring the whales avoid getting too close to shore or into the deep ocean.

A tool for conservation

What the model does less well is accurately predict travel time between the Great Barrier Reef and the Gold Coast bay.

There are a few reasons why this may be the case. For example, the aforementioned underwater movements and associated behaviours are difficult to capture and convert into meaningful components of our model. Research has started to reveal detailed dive profiles but is time consuming and expensive.

We also assume that swimming speed remains more or less constant over time regardless of whether it is day or night. However, research into daily activity patterns has, so far, focused primarily on feeding and mating behaviours rather than variations in swimming speed.

Nevertheless, the current version of our model provides a suitable framework for simulating humpback whale migration and can be expanded to investigate a response of this species to future changes in ocean conditions. In theory, it can be applied to other marine species too, as long as relevant behavioural response data is available.

The development of such predictive models is increasingly important to aid conservation efforts and guide effective strategies for protecting vulnerable species affected by climate change.

Jasper de Bie, Research Fellow, Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Griffith University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

https://cosmosmagazine.com/nature/predicting-migration-of-humpback-whale/