Tag: Voting

Some Hopium on Thursday

Winning The House w/Rudy Salas (CA-22), Good Week Of Polling For Harris, Trump Is The Ugliest Thing We’ve All Ever Seen by Simon Rosenberg

Join Us To Make Calls and Write Postcards for Janelle Bynum Tonight at 730pm ET Read on Substack

Happy Thursday all. Been a really good week for us. Got a few things for you today:

It’s A New, Bluer Election – 8 polls have been released this week showing Vice President Harris leading (all polls via 538):

  • 49%-45% (+4) Civiqs
  • 49%-46% (+3) Leger (was +7 Trump)
  • 48%-46% (+2) FAU (was +5 Trump)
  • 46%-44% (+2) Economist/YouGov (was +3 Trump last week!!!!!!)
  • 45%-43% (+2) Redfield and Wilton
  • 50%-48% (+2) American Pulse Research and Polling
  • 44%-42% (+2) Angus Reid Global
  • 47%-46% (+1) Morning Consult

Yesterday we discussed that a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll had Harris leading in the battlegrounds 48%-47%, ahead in AZ, NV, MI, WI, tied in GA and only down 2 in NC. A new set of polls by GOP/DeSantis pollster Public Opinion Strategies found good news in the battlegrounds, Harris-Trump:

  • WI 48-45
  • PA 48-46
  • MI 45-45
  • NV 45-46
  • AZ 43-48 (note Harris leads by 2 pts in AZ in the Bloomberg/MC poll)

We also learned yesterday that the Trump campaign has started buying ads in North Carolina, meaning they view it as in play (which it is!) and we saw very good polls in both MN and NH, consistent with Harris having modest national popular vote leads.

Let’s discuss what this all means. Right now the Vice President appears to be opening up a modest lead in the national popular vote. Battleground state polls this week have her leading in AZ, NV, MI, PA, WI and close in GA, NC. We still have not yet seen the full effect of the rallying around her, a week of campaigning next week with the new VP pick, our joyous Convention or what will now be the most powerful early vote/GOTV machine ever seen in an American election.

Trump and Vance continue to generate far more negative press than positive, and we are now on offense, playing hard and perhaps even beating them now on social media. Taken together I think it is reasonable to expect that we gain a few more points in the election over the next few weeks and enter the home stretch in a much stronger position than the pro-Putin, Project 2025-loving MAGAs.

Based on polling and our very strong 2022 performances I always felt it was likely we would hold the three Blue Wall states – MI, PA, WI – which gets the Vice President to 269 Electoral College Votes (note the UAW endorsed VP Harris yesterday, meaning we head into the fall with the most enthusiastic labor support a Democratic ticket has had in many years). Which is why here at Hopium we’ve focused on winning AZ, NC and the Nebraska blue dot. Winning any of these 3 gets us to 270. We currently lead in NE-2, and our friend Jane Kleeb the NE State Party Chair is as good as it gets. AZ and NC are in play, with extremists Kari Lake and Mark Robinson at the top of the GOP tickets in those states, and Ruben Gallego and Josh Stein running very strong campaigns for Senate and Governor. In addition to the $800,000 we’ve raised for Biden and Harris, our community has now invested more than $800,000 into AZ, NE and NC as part of what I’ve called our check – MI, PA, WI – and checkmate – any of AZ, NE, NC – strategy.

Here’s our friend Anderson Clayton, the NC Dem Party Chair, thanking the Hopium community for being the largest outside investor in NC Dems this year: (vid on the page)

Friends, we are not playing catch up any more. We are playing to win.

Here’s a new ad from the Harris SuperPAC, Future Forward: (vid on the page)

Trump reminded us yesterday what a racist pig he is, and once again did remarkable harm to his candidacy. But remember folks, here at Hopium, nothing he does or says is a surprise. We know he is a rapist, fraudster, traitor and felon. We know he is old, very old, profoundly unfit and deeply unwell. We know he is a modern day Bull Connor, a white supremacist, a bigot and a xenophobe. We know he is the ugliest political thing we’ve all ever seen.

Here’s Stuart Stevens with a great riff on Trump the babyman from MSNBC last night: (vid on the page)

And we know what Trump and Commander Vance want to do if they somehow get into the White House next year:

They want Putin to win, the West to lose. The border to be in chaos, and migrants to keep flowing into the country. Americans to lose even more rights and freedoms. The planet to warm faster. 10 year olds to carry their rapist’s baby to term, and for more women to die on operating room tables. Tens of millions to lose their health insurance. More dead kids in schools. Verified rapists in positions of authority. A restoration of pre-Civil Rights era white supremacy. Huge new tariffs which will raise prices on everything and wreck the global economy which has made us prosperous. Big new tax cuts for their wealthiest donors and tax increases for every day people. Books banned across the US. Seniors to pay more for insulin and prescription drugs. Foreign governments free to pollute our daily discourse and harass our citizens. Teenagers to work night shifts in meat packing plants and not go to school. The minimum wage to stay at $7.25. Mass arrests and mass deportations of immigrants long settled in the US. Insurrectionists to be pardoned. To end American democracy for all time.

The reason we are all here is that we are committed to not letting any of this happen. And this week while you all have rallied for the Vice President, raising more than $100,000 (amazing), we’ve also significantly stepped up our efforts to flip the House to give the Vice President the legislative partner she needs to advance her agenda next year. We heard from House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries earlier this week. We’ve raised close to $150,000 for our House candidates since Friday and almost $800,000 in the past two months. You can catch our 7th interview with our House candidates, Rudy Salas, above. Rudy is running to flip CA-22 and become the first Latino Member of Congress from California’s Central Valley. And tonight we kick off our Thursday night Hopium Winning the House phonebanking and postcarding Zooms, this one supporting Janelle Bynum in OR-5. I’ll be starting things off at 730pm ET and we will be joined by Janelle herself to give us a bit of motivation to go out and do good, together.

You can join us tonight by signing up here. You can learn more about this new grassroots collaboration project to win the House, including how to order postcards if you need them. Please consider giving us a shift or two in the weeks ahead. We can do this people!!!!

For those who want to support Rudy Salas, you can support him by donating to all of our 11 House candidates in one donation split 11 ways, or by donating to him directly. You can also volunteer for him here.

Here are additional ways to do more and worry less in the days ahead and help us win. All of our goals are by the first day of early voting in the Presidential election, September 20th (or maybe by the last day of the Dem Convention???):

  • Harris For President – $794,000 raised today, $1m goal – Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. The $794,000 raised is both Biden-Harris and the $194,000 we’ve already raised for Harris for President
  • Winning The House – $727,000 raised today, $1m goal – Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve also raised more then $55,000 into the individual House campaigns (you can either give to all 11 or each one individually). Watch my recent interview with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. It will get you all fired up to make him our next Speaker
  • North Carolina – $351,000 raised today, $400,000 goal – Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
  • Arizona/Ruben Gallego – $308,000 raised today, $350,000 goal – Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
  • Nebraska/Blue Dot – $127,000 raised today, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Here’s how you can do even more:

As Tuesday’s primary in AZ-01 is still too close to call, I have taken Andrei Cherny off our 12 way split for House contributions until we have a clear winner there. Thanks to all of you who have supported Andrei. He is a close friend, and truly one of the smartest and best people I’ve ever worked with. More on this soon.

Finally, please help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Use this link to sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack.

We are now over 97,000 strong – help us get to 100,000!!!!!

Keep working hard all. Lot’s to be excited about right now. Proud to be in this fight with all of you – Simon

This is great info-

Activism: Two Ways To Make Hi-Impact Donations

Reblog from Octoberfarm

http://octoberfarm.blogspot.com/2024/07/blog-post_31.html

Poll: Harris Erases Trump’s Lead In Seven Swing States

Poll: Harris Erases Trump’s Lead In Seven Swing States

July 30, 2024 Democrats, Kamala Harris

 

Bloomberg News reports:

Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states, as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

Harris was backed by 48% of voters to 47% for Trump — a statistical dead heat — in the swing states that will likely decide November’s election.

That’s a stronger showing than the two-point deficit for President Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race. The Democratic vice president overtook her GOP rival in Arizona and Nevada, and more than doubled Biden’s lead over Trump in Michigan.

Read the full article.

“Remarks to Women for Harris National Organizing Call

“Bad night for mascara, great night for democracy.”

Charlotte Clymer Jul 30, 2024

Last night, I was honored and delighted to join a phenomenal group of brilliant leaders and hundreds of thousands of women across the country in support of the Vice President on the first Women for Harris National Organizing Call.

You can watch the organizing call in its entirety right here, and I strongly recommend doing so.

Speakers included Women for Harris Director Rhonda Foxx, Sen. Laphonza Butler, Chelsea Clinton, Min Jin Lee, Yvette Nicole Brown, Shannon Watts, Ai-Jen Poo, Glynda Carr, and so many more.

I honestly did not expect to cry so much, but when Ms. Lee began telling her story and teared up, I completely lost it. By the time Ms. Clinton reminded us all of the history of women seeking the White House, I was a mess.

It was a bad night for mascara and a great night for democracy.

Below are my remarks:

Good evening!

My name is Charlotte Clymer, my pronouns are she/her, I’m a writer and activist, and I am so excited to be part of this historic gathering of women across the country.

Now, look, I’m not gonna repeat to y’all what the brilliant and eloquent women who spoke before me stated, nor do I have the eloquence and brilliance of the women who will speak over the remainder of this evening.

I’m just gonna tell y’all a quick story about why I proudly support Vice President Harris.

I am a proud American, a proud Texan, a proud military veteran, a proud trans woman, and a proud Democrat.

And I have found that there a lot of folks, including Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, who want to place me in a specific box.

They say I’m too queer to be a proud military veteran.

They say a trans woman like me can’t be a Christian and a strong person of faith as I am.

They say women like me don’t belong in America.

Well, here’s what I have to say to that: thank goodness our leader, Vice President Harris, has common sense and believes no American, no human being, belongs in a box.

A little over four years ago, a number of rightwing extremists took a picture of me from a public event and attempted to harass me online. They wanted me to be ashamed of how I look as a trans woman.

Now, just like the women I admire—women like my grandmother, women like Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett from my home state of Texas, women like Vice President Harris—am I going to give these sad and insecure people that kinda power over me?

No.

I don’t have time for that. I love how I look. I know I’m beautiful.

So, I wrote a thread explaining that, and I offered an open hope that these sad and insecure people will someday have the kind of peace and comfort in their own skin as I have in mine.

She fights for the military veteran who comes back from war with horrific wounds. She fights for the woman turned away from life-saving abortion access. She fights for the public school teacher who’s overworked and underpaid. She fights for every child, every senior, every single American. She fights for all of us.

One of the first public figures to respond to that thread was then-Senator Kamala Harris. (emph. mine-A)

She gave me support. She gave me encouragement. She made me feel seen. And in that moment, she sent a clear message that supporting her means supporting the basic concept that all of us are worthy to be who we are authentically.

I want to be clear: there were no incentives for her here. I hadn’t endorsed her. I hadn’t talked with her campaign. It wasn’t like she was gonna fundraise off this moment.

She did it because Vice President Harris is the kind of leader who fights for every American.

Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are gonna throw everything they got at her—every cruel remark, every disgusting sexist and racist trope, every bit of vile—and they’re gonna find out the hard way that it just isn’t enough.

And why is that? Because we have a clear strategy here. All we have to do is follow the example of Vice President Harris. She is a leader who builds bridges, who invites tough conversations, who always embraces discomfort as a gift for growth.

If we follow her example, if we make every phone call, if we knock on every door, if we invite tough conversations with our friends and family and neighbors who are on the fence in this election, I guarantee you, on everything I hold dear, that Kamala Harris will be the 47th President of the United States.

Thank god this is our leader. Let’s follow her example. Let’s go win this thing.

To find out how to volunteer and elect our first woman president and save democracy from Trump and Vance and Project 2025, text WOMEN to 30330.

And donate to the historic and exciting campaign of Vice President Harris right here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/charlotteforharris

https://charlotteclymer.substack.com/p/remarks-to-women-for-harris-national?r=1pk2l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Let’s talk about Harris, momentum, and numbers….

I’m writing postcards for candidates

So far, I’ve got a couple hundred GOTV postcards coming next week, then in a couple of months, I’ll be writing for Rep. Davids of KS-03 (not my rep, but wish she was!) I’ve signed up with the Harris campaign to write for her, too, as well as phone banking for her close to the election.

For the Harris campaign, one can sign up to volunteer at https://kamalaharris.com/ . When you go there, there will be a cover screen asking for dollar contributions. If this is not what you want or can do, simply close that, then on the home screen, input your info. You’ll go to a page where you can look and choose what you want to do, including the phone banking, walking your neighborhood, postcards and letters, and text banking (I hate those damn things, and I don’t do ’em. But they must work.)

To do the postcards, I’m signed up with a couple of organizations, and just now got this one from John Pavlovitz’s Damn Giver’s Dispatch. It’s Postcards to Swing States, at https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/ . Right now, they’re looking for postcard writers for US Reps. Every single seat of the US House is up for election every two years. Currently, the MTG contingent is in semi-control; hence the lack of work performed there. Anyway, here you can choose which district to write for. If you don’t have one close to you, or that you care about, I’ve read that Alaska’s Rep. Peltola can use a boost, but you’ll see a list. The smallest number of postcards offered here is 200. I’ve done 200 before, and they really go faster than it seems as if they would (templates are provided.) But even if you get 10 done, that’s 10 more voters reached on behalf of the candidate. The other active organization sending out postcards for GOTV is MomsRising. You do not have to be a mom to write for them; they don’t ask. But all of us care about moms, and especially the kids, which makes us part of the village. MomsRising offers 20 or 100 postcards, at https://action.momsrising.org/survey/2024_Postcards_May/ . These activities are free to us but for our time! Well, and the ink we use to write.

Here’s hoping we each find the time and energy to do a little something to help Democrats win elections in November. Even simply talking someone up in the grocery line is helpful, and will make a difference. It is vital that we each vote, but it’s also vital that we do a little more. It was never intended that all US citizens had to do about our government was vote. This time it will matter as much as ever!

Thanks for your time.

Buttigieg Recounts Trump’s Lies On Fox News [VIDEO]

Buttigieg Recounts Trump’s Lies On Fox News [VIDEO]

July 28, 2024 Democrats, Politics

 

“He didn’t keep his promise of 6% economic growth. He broke his promise to pass an infrastructure bill. He even broke his promise to that J6 mob when he said, ‘I will be at your side when you march down to the Capitol.’

“But he actually did keep two promises: He kept his promise to destroy the right to choose in this country, and he kept his promise on tax cuts to the rich.

“If you want to know what a second Trump term would look like, I would look at those rare promises that he actually managed to keep. He’s disavowed a lot of things. I don’t believe him. He lies all the time.

“Republicans who are in Trump’s personality cult look at Donald Trump and say he’s perfectly fine even though he seemed unable to tell the difference between Haley and Pelosi, even though he’s rambling about electrocuting sharks and Hannibal Lecter. We don’t have that kind of warped reality on our side.

“Crime is down under Joe Biden and crime was up under Donald Trump. Now, I don’t know how often that gets reported on this network, so if you’re watching this at home, do yourself a favor and look up the data.

“Why would America want to go back to the higher crime that we experienced under Donald Trump?” – Pete Buttigieg, this morning on Fox News.

Hello, I am Energized2 days ago

VP or not, he’s an indispensable asset to the Party.

JayP  Hello, I am Energized2 days ago

I heard that he’s helping Harris in the art of debating. That’s the kind of guy she needs.

Jonathan Smith  Hello, I am Energized2 days ago

I wish he would be, but a “Colored Woman” and a “Gay guy” would kill our chances with any even Pink Republican.

cheakamus  Jonathan Smith2 days ago

I’m not so sure. I think anyone willing to vote for Kamala wouldn’t have a problem with Pete.

Chucktech  cheakamus 2 days ago

I love to think so, but nevertheless, it’s risky.

GayFordhamPrepGrad2 days ago

I love how he goes on Fox and they don’t even know what hit them. God, I am so proud to play for his team.

ASFT2 days ago edited

Fuck it – Make that man VP candidate.

While I suppose it theoretically might turn off a few voters, a) he’s the best person for the job and b) if you won’t vote for a candidate b/c of a gay VP, you probably actually weren’t going to vote for the candidate in the first place.

(The ONLY good argument I’ve heard so far is that the young age of Pete’s children make would place an unreasonable demand on his time. [ETA: For clarification, I meant the job would place an unreasonable demand on his time with his children. But my brain no work gud this early.] If that’s true and he feels that way – fine, he can decline.)

amy cuscuriae  ASFT2 days ago edited

There is no evidence Kamala Harris isn’t considering him as her vice-presidential nominee, but the Washington Post didn’t even include Pete in their readers’ poll.

Pandering to anti-gay bigotry by saying other voters might not accept a gay candidate is just another form of anti-gay bigotry.

Ščŏŧŧ Ċ – Voting for Harris  ASFT 2 days ago

I posted one of them, the day Harris got the nod.
I’ve thought about it and changed my mind. Pete’s proved himself. Anyone who wouldn’t vote for the ticket because there’s a gay guy probably wouldn’t have voted for the ticket because there’s a brown woman.

 

Dems, Non-Trumpers: Going on Offense in Pushing Back Against Trump’s Lies and Missteps

Dems, Non-Trumpers: Going on Offense in Pushing Back Against Trump’s Lies and Missteps

I have followed Gronda for a long time, before she took her long break.  But she is back and her writtings while in debth and a bit long are so very interesting and well researched that they are more than worth the time to read.  I love them.  I hope everyone here will.  Hugs.  Scottie

The View from Rural Missouri by Jess Piper

The Vibes Have Changed… by Jess Piper

Hope.

Read on Substack

My husband and I have five kids. Four are now adults and we have one still at home. We have raised wrestlers, football players, basketball players, and a softball player. We’ve had a cheerleader and two homecoming kings, but we never expected our last to hate sports and love theater. Let me tell you…it’s a breath of fresh air and I don’t have to take out special insurance riders for concussions and broken collar bones.

Our last kiddo is a theater kid and I love it.

I walked into my daughter’s yearly play performance a couple of days ago and saw a woman smiling at me as I passed. You have to remember that I am in a small town and if people know me, they also know my loud-mouth brand of politics, so I can be polarizing in person. If they know me, they like me or hate me. There’s no in-between.

So when I saw her smiling at me, I smiled back. Whew! She must be friendly. She said “Kamala” as I walked past. I turned back and said, “Kamala?” She responded with, “Yes, we Kam,” and her smile grew even bigger. I couldn’t believe what I had just heard.

Kamala.

That was the Friday night performance. My daughter also had a Saturday matinee. My husband and I sat closer to the stage for this one since we knew where to better see our kid as she sang and danced. As we sat down, a woman behind me said, “Jess!” I turned and she told me how much she appreciated me speaking out on rural issues. She held my hand as she told me how excited she was to hear Kamala would be the nominee. We talked for just a minute and I then turned back to see my husband scrolling Facebook marketplace as we waited for the play to begin…he’s always looking for a deal on an old car or a lawnmower. We need neither.

A couple of minutes passed when a former student (I adore her and her entire family) got my attention. Mrs. Piper! She introduced me to yet another woman who lives in my community and sat next to me nearly breathless in her excitement for the upcoming election. She asked how we could start organizing for 2024. How can we work to elect Crystal Quade as the first woman Governor of Missouri? How can we make sure abortion rights win on Missouri ballots? How can we organize in tiny Northwest Missouri to elect Kamala Harris?

Her eyes were clear and bright. She also held my hand while speaking. She and the other women were exhibiting something I had not seen in a long time…it looked like hope.

Adams County, Illinois.

I was asked to speak to a group of Democrats in Quincy, Illinois this week and I happily accepted. Quincy is a town just over the Mississippi River from Missouri. The landscape looks exactly like the corn and bean fields of Missouri, and it is just across the river, but I was suddenly bestowed with bodily autonomy and the rights of a first-class citizen as soon as I drove east across that muddy river.

“States’ Rights.”

The problem with driving several hours with only minutes to dress for an event? I am consistently dressing next to a toilet — changing out of my leggings or shorts and into a dress. I always hope for a stall with a hook to hang my things so I don’t have to drop my clothes onto a public bathroom floor. And, don’t even ask how I apply makeup while sitting on a toilet. I live a glamorous life, friend 😉

Anyway, I managed the toilet two-step and walked out ready to speak to a few people. The event organizer told me there are usually 50-60 people who attend.

As soon as folks started arriving for the event, I noticed it would be a bigger crowd than they had anticipated. The Adams County Dems had prepared enough food for 90 people — over and above what they hoped to host. They had over 100 show up. The organizer told me it was the biggest event they have had in years. I’d like to say it’s because people were there to hear me, but I know that’s not the case. People showed up because they were excited. They wanted to be around like-minded friends who are excited. They wanted to smile broadly and talk loudly. They wanted to hear others affirm what they felt.

They have hope.

I noticed a woman in a Kamala shirt…it had only been three days since Joe said he was stepping aside. I asked her if she had a Cricut machine in her basement. These folks are moving fast. Excitement.

I sat down at a table to eat my pulled pork sandwich before my talk and organizers from an abortion rights group were at the table already discussing the Plan B kits they send across the border to Missouri. One woman said they put together over 100 kits and sent them to bars in Missouri with a no-pay policy. If you need the kit, just walk in and ask. I was amazed at the work they are doing to help women in another state. My state. The first state to completely ban abortion after Roe fell.

Bless them.

The first speaker was a first-generation Mexican American who also served in the Army. He was fiery. He blew us away with his love of country and patriotism for a country that has not lived up to its potential. He reminded the audience that Democrats are patriots. That we are trying to live up to ideals that will pave the way for all to live freely in our country. He stands in the way of a Trump dictatorship.

I love to hear Dems remind us that the Republicans do not own patriotism or the flag. In fact, the leader of the Republican party is a shameful man who does not stand for American values. The audience came to their feet as he closed his message.

The next speaker was a young woman from rural Missouri. She is only 16, but she came with a speech that made me remember why Republicans want to ban books and ban the teaching of accurate history. She spoke of being a woman in a red state with an abortion ban. “Oh, to be a Woman.” She spoke of women activists and the suffrage movement. She is a woman of color and she spoke of the civil rights movement. She spoke of second-class citizenship and of her ability to see why politicians would want to oppress generations of women. Fear of our vote.

Republicans push fear while we move forward in hope.

And, this is where I should say something. Reader, you know I was in favor of Joe staying in the race, and this was the reason: Every time pundits and consultants spoke of Biden dropping out, they never named Kamala Harris. Her name did not appear on the lists for nomination, and I am not sure they would have ceded the nomination if Biden had not endorsed her as he did. If tens of thousands of us would not have immediately started donating and picking up the torch Joe had passed.

If we had not rallied behind the woman we hope to nominate for the presidency, I think we may have had another nominee and many Democrats would have felt the fracture in our party.

There is no fracture now. There is palpable hope and joy. Eyes are wide and clear and smiles abound. Folks hold my hand to tell me how excited they are to see where the party is going.

I am telling you the story of rural spaces.

The vibes have changed.

~Jess