Well, Here Is This:

Why Democrats are suddenly winning back the left — and the “double-haters”

Plus, the share of Americans calling themselves Republicans just hit a decade low. Your weekly political data roundup for April 5, 2026.

G. Elliott Morris

Leading off: Very liberal Americans, who have rated the Democratic Party poorly relative to other partisans since 2024, have swung sharply back toward congressional Democrats over the last few months. A new poll also finds voters who dislike both parties now prefer Democrats by 31 points. These gains should reassure a party that has faced internal strife since Trump’s second term began, but look less due to renewed faith in the Democrats and more like anti-Trump consolidation. That might not matter for the midterms — a vote won is a vote won — but it will matter for 2028 and beyond.

On deck this week: Tuesday’s Deep Dive will cover some new research on the level of ideological thinking in the electorate and the value (or not) of ideological moderation by the Democrats, and Friday’s Chart of the Week will respond to whatever’s in the news. I’m also finalizing questions for our April Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll this week — so subscribers, send in your question recommendations if you haven’t already! (Email or comments are fine.)

On with the data.

1. Anti-Trump sentiment, not pro-Democratic enthusiasm, is uniting Democrats again

A new YouGov/The Economist poll, fielded from March 27 – 30, finds that Democratic voters have grown significantly warmer toward their members of Congress over the last few months. Earlier in 2026, Democrats said their party’s MOCs were favorable at a rate just 30 points higher than the rate they said their party was unfavorable. That gap has now grown to +55 — rivaling the favorability of Republican MOCs among Republican voters.

Aggregate Democratic views have increased because very liberal Americans have become sharply more favorable toward congressional Democrats since January. This group evaluated the party’s members of Congress favorably by a net +28 points margin — up from a -13 deficit in January. That’s a 41-point shift in two months:

Among Americans who are liberal but not very liberal, moderate, or conservative (basically everyone else), views of congressional Democrats barely budged.

Overall, U.S. adults give the Democrats a favorability rating of -21, 5 points higher than the rating they currently give Republicans.

That is a meaningful change. Last summerStrength In Numbers documented that Democratic party favorability was unusually weak even as the party remained competitive on the generic ballot. We dug into the survey microdata and found out that this was because many left-leaning Americans were frustrated with their own side after the 2024 loss. Charles Franklin, who conducts the Marquette University Law School Poll, has been tracking the same dynamic in both national and Wisconsin polling. Among Democratic identifiers in Wisconsin, his data shows a net +56 favorability rating for their party, compared to +74 among Republican identifiers for the GOP.

Franklin finds that while Democrats still disagree about what they’re for, they are virtually unanimous in what they’re against: Donald Trump.

The simplest explanation for Democrats’ gains is that politically active party members on the left — who have had a lot of complaints about how the party is handling Trump 2.0 — are now responding to the same thing many other Americans are right now. That is, the president has moved public policy on many issue domains far to the right and up on the authoritarian axis (certainly far past the policy temperature “set point,” to use the language of the thermostatic model), and progressives are setting their differences with the Democrats aside for the moment as they focus on defeating an increasingly unpopular Republican president. This looks more like anti-Trump unity than pro-Democratic enthusiasm.

But it’s not just the base

The Democrats’ consolidation of left-wing liberalism is one piece of a broader backlash to Trumpism that shows up in the polling data right now. Another notable finding this week is from a new CNN/SSRS survey that found that about one-quarter of the public holds an unfavorable view of both parties. These are the so-called “double haters.” This group prefers Democrats on the 2025 generic ballot by 31 points.

This is a big deal for two reasons. First, that’s a massive shift; Double haters broke for Trump in 2016 and again in 2024. Now they’re swinging hard the other way.

Like Franklin’s polling, the CNN report also finds that Democrats’ gains are driven largely by opposition to the GOP, not enthusiasm for Democrats themselves. When asked what they dislike about Democrats, 22% of double haters called the party “do-nothing” and 11% said they aren’t standing up enough to Trump and the GOP, while 10% said they’re too liberal.

Will 2026 be a Democratic fake out?

So we’ve got two layers of anti-Trump consolidation happening at once. YouGov’s data shows the Democratic left is coming home, and the CNN poll shows voters who dislike both parties — a swing group that has been decisive in recent elections — are breaking heavily toward Democrats for the first time in years. Neither group is necessarily enthusiastic about Democrats. But both are currently heavily voting against Republicans. According to the CNN poll, 79% of voters who plan to support Democrats say their vote is a message of opposition to Trump. (Only 46% of Republican voters say they’ll vote to show support for the president.)

This could make for a big electoral win for Democrats in November, despite the division in the party and its overall nominally unpopular rating. According to CNN, Democratic-aligned voters are 17 points more likely than Republicans to call themselves “extremely motivated” to vote in 2026 — even though they’re 14 points less likely to view their own party favorably. Meanwhile, the Democrats have opened up a large lead in the U.S. House generic congressional ballot for 2026. They are up +6 in both the CNN and YouGov surveys, and closer to +5 on average.

This is the pattern I’d expect in a midterm environment that favors the out-party. But with many Americans (including the vaunted “double-haters”) still viewing the Democrats as weak and ineffectual, a big electoral victory will not completely solve their deeper problems of identity and division.

The trend in this data is good for the Democrats, in other words — but don’t misread a positive trend for a positive level.

2. What Strength In Numbers published last week

Readers of Strength In Numbers got three articles last week — a lighter load, since I was out sick Monday and Tuesday.

This week’s Deep Dive asked a question I’ve been getting a lot lately: if Trump is 20+ points underwater, why aren’t Democrats leading the generic ballot by 20?

Trump is 20+ points underwater. So why aren't Democrats up 20 for the midterms?

Trump is 20+ points underwater. So why aren’t Democrats up 20 for the midterms?

G. Elliott Morris Apr 1

Read full story

On Thursday, David and I recorded our weekly podcast about Trump’s record-low polling numbers on Iran and the economy:

(snip-a bit More, go see it)

REUTERS: Iran says peace talks would be “unreasonable” following Israeli strikes in Lebanon

Iran says peace talks would be “unreasonable” following Israeli strikes in Lebanon
Israel pounded Lebanon with its heaviest strikes yet on Wednesday, killing hundreds of people and drawing a threat of retaliation from Iran, which suggested it would be “unreasonable” to ‌proceed with talks to forge a permanent peace deal with the United States.

Read in Reuters: https://apple.news/AKa4EM5RHQZSnWQmITMMeQQ

Shared from Apple News

Best Wishes and Hugs,Scottie

Olympic Athletes Rapinoe and Bird Slam IOC Trans Ban: “I’m Sickened By It”

https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/olympic-athletes-rapinoe-and-bird

“It’s just a total acquiescence to the Trump Administration,” Rapinoe said.

Well, It’s True.

Funny, some, but true. I enjoy reading at McSweeney’s, and I don’t do it often enough.

Final Exam for the Class “What a Presidential Candidate Can and Cannot Survive, Apparently” Taught
by Howard Dean

by Tom Ellison and Nick Morgan

      Final Exam
Poli Sci 401
Yale University,
Jackson School of Global Affairs
Professor Howard Dean

Part I (50 points) – multiple choice

1. Which of these public utterances would immediately end a candidate’s presidential ambitions?

A. “I want to be a dictator.

B. “If [she] weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.

C. “YEEEAAAAAWW!!!

2. Each of the following moves would consolidate a candidate’s base, except:

A. Expressing agreement with the great replacement theory

B. Expressing solidarity with the Proud Boys and January 6 insurrectionists

C. Expressing enthusiasm, which was a big no-no in 2004 Iowa, apparently

3. Which violation of American values would cause the electorate to doubt the candidate’s fitness for the presidency?

A. Violating the human rights of families by tearing children away from their parents at the border

B. Violating the bodies of twenty-six women

C. Violating the unspoken decibel limit on cheering at an event meant for cheering, which is definitely a good rule that applies equally to everyone

4. If exposed to the public, which revelations would instantly decimate campaign fundraising?

A. The candidate being caught with boxes full of state secrets next to their toilet

B. The candidate being caught sleeping with a porn star just after his wife had a baby

C. The candidate being caught up in a moment, just a fleeting moment, which at the time seemed normal, not the end of everything the candidate had ever worked for since the candidate was twelve

5. Which of the following statements warrants being aired 633 times by national news outlets in a span of four days?

A. “They’re poisoning the blood of our country.

B. “Laziness is a trait in Blacks.

C. “YEEEAAAAAWW!!!

6. Which of the following audio recordings would be so damaging that it becomes a years-long political meme and defines the candidate for the rest of their life?

A. A recording where the candidate extorts Ukraine for election assistance

B. A recording where the candidate brags about grabbing women “by the pussy”

C. A recording where the mics picked up the candidate but not the roar of the crowd, which, if you were there, was really loud and made screaming much more normal in context, actually

7. Which action would cause an immediate, double-digit drop in the polls?

A. Starting a movement to hang the vice president

B. Starting a coup d’etat attempt against the United States of America

C. Starting to say “yee-haw” because it felt so right after rattling off the upcoming state primaries, but then realizing halfway through the first syllable that, dammit Howard, someone from Vermont can’t pull off “yee-haw,” and then panicking and switching to “yeah!” or “yay!” all at once, but it was too late and a lump in your throat made it come out like the death knell of a tortured bobcat

8. True or False: It makes perfect sense that the twenty-five-year abortion record of the presidential candidate who ended Roe v. Wade has less Wikipedia content than the three-second audio record of a candidate who just, you know, was pumped up in the face of a setback in the Iowa caucuses, so pumped that he lost control of his body in a burst of unvarnished optimism:

A. True

B. False

C. There has not been a difference between truth and falsehood, right and wrong, or sanity and insanity since early 2004

9. Which charges would provoke widespread calls to suspend a campaign?

A. Being charged in New York with thirty-four felony counts for covering up sex with a porn star

B. Being charged in Florida with forty felony counts for stealing state secrets and lying to the FBI

C. Being charged in Georgia with ten felony counts for conspiring to steal an election

D. Being charged in DC with four felony counts for trying to stop the electoral vote certification in Congress in order to seize power from the lawful president-elect, Joe Biden, in violation of the US Constitution and the peaceful transfer of power

E. Being charged with all eighty-eight felony counts above, all in a five-month period

F. Being charged with a zeal to oppose the invasion of Iraq and establish universal health care, which looks pretty good these days if you ask some people but was apparently too sincere for the petty, vindictive shitheads who actually vote in this country.

10. Which of the following statements would make voters question a presidential candidate’s mental capacity?

A. “HAPPY EASTER TO ALL, INCLUDING CROOKED AND CORRUPT PROSECUTORS AND JUDGES THAT ARE DOING EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO INTERFERE WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2024, AND PUT ME IN PRISON, INCLUDING THOSE MANY PEOPLE THAT I COMPLETELY & TOTALLY DESPISE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO DESTROY AMERICA, A NOW FAILING NATION, LIKE ‘DERANGED’ JACK SMITH, WHO IS EVIL AND ‘SICK,’ MRS. FANI ‘FAUNI’ WADE, WHO SAID SHE HARDLY KNEW THE ‘SPECIAL’ PROSECUTOR, ONLY TO FIND THAT HE SPENT YEARS ‘LOVING’ HER, LONG BEFORE THE GEORGIA PERSECUTION OF PRESIDENT TRUMP BEGAN (AND THEREBY MAKING THE CASE AGAINST ME NULL, VOID, AND ILLEGAL!), AND LAZY ON VIOLENT CRIME ALVIN BRAGG WHO, WITH CROOKED JOE’S DOJ THUGS, UNFAIRLY WORKING IN THE D.A.’s OFFICE, ILLEGALLY INDICTED ME ON A CASE HE NEVER WANTED TO BRING AND VIRTUALLY ALL LEGAL SCHOLARS SAY IS A CASE THAT SHOULD NOT BE BROUGHT, IS BREAKING THE LAW IN DOING SO (POMERANTZ!), WAS TURNED DOWN BY ALL OTHER LAW ENFORCEMENT AUTHORITIES, AND IS NOT A CRIME. HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!

B. “YEEEAAAAAWW!!!

Part 2 – Essay (50,000 pts)

Write a twenty-five-page essay on the following question:

Does anything even matter?

(snip)

Science And Wonder And Beauty

Whale filmed giving birth, with a little help from her friends

Paris (France) (AFP) – Scientists have managed to film a spectacular event rarely witnessed by humans: a sperm whale giving birth while other females worked together to support the mother and her newborn.

A team from Project CETI, an international effort seeking to understand how whales communicate, were in a boat near a pod of 11 whales off the coast of the Caribbean island of Dominica on July 8, 2023.

A 19-year-old female named Rounder was surrounded by family members and others as she was about to give birth to her second calf.

Over nearly five and a half hours, the scientists documented the group’s behaviour, watching them from the boat, filming them with drones and recording the sounds underneath the waves.

The data they collected, which was published in the journals Scientific Reports and Science on Thursday, represent an exceptional rarity in the history of science.

Out of 93 species of cetaceans — a group that includes whales, dolphins and porpoises — only nine have ever been observed giving birth in the wild.

Rarer still was that whales not related to the mother were helping out.

“This is the first evidence of birth assistance in non-primates,” Project CETI team member Shane Gero told the New Scientist.

“It is fascinating to see the intergenerational support from the grandmother to her labouring daughter, and the support from the other, unrelated females.”

Lifting up the newborn

The birth lasted 34 minutes, from their tails emerging from the water to the calf being born.

During labour, other adult females dove under Rounder’s dorsal fin, often on their backs with the heads facing her genital slit.

Immediately after the birth, the pod’s behaviour “rapidly changed” as every member became active, according to the study in Scientific Reports.

All the adults were “squeezing the newborn’s body between theirs, touching it with their heads”, the researchers wrote.

The whales pointed their noses towards the newborn, “pushing it around, under the water, and onto and across their bodies above the surface”.

The remarkable behaviour dates back more than 36 million years and is believed to be due to the unique history of cetaceans.

After their distant ancestors left the water and adapted to life on land, cetaceans are the only mammals that returned to the ocean.

This dive back into the water required some evolutionary tricks to prevent newborns from drowning.

For example, whale calves are born tail-first, rather than head-first like other mammals.

However, while newborn sperm whales become talented swimmers within a few hours, they still sink right after birth.

So other whales have to lift the calf up “to prevent the newborn from sinking while also facilitating its first breaths”, the researchers suggested.

Primates — including humans — are the only other mammals known to help assist each other out during birth.

Excited vocal sounds

The scientists also recorded the whales making many sounds, including significant changes in “vocal style” during key events, the study said.

This included when a group of pilot whales approached the pod after the birth.

The changes in vocalisation suggest that the group was coordinating to support the birth — or protect the newborn, the researchers said.

Sperm whales have one of the longest pregnancies in the animal kingdom, with a gestation period that lasts up to 16 months.

When calves are born they are already four metres (13 feet) long. They will rely on their mother’s milk for at least two years.

As they grow, the young become the centre of their pod’s social unit, with others helping out with babysitting while the mother searches for food.

After the birth was filmed in 2023, the pod was not spotted again for over a year. Then the newborn was spotted with Accra and Aurora — the other young members of the pod — on July 25 last year.

Surviving its first year is a good sign that the sperm whale will reach adulthood, the Project CETI team said.

© 2026 AFP

THE GUARDIAN: ‘Masquerading as a university’: inside the brazen rightwing plan to conquer American schools

‘Masquerading as a university’: inside the brazen rightwing plan to conquer American schools
As teachers eagerly adopt its free lesson plans and the White House boosts its videos, PragerU is intent on one goal: attracting young people to conservatism

Read in The Guardian: https://apple.news/Aqs0t0DpeR1yPE9sm2q8uDA

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Best Wishes and Hugs,Scottie

Reblog From MPS:

Scottie and I each post from Pro Publica’s excellent news reportage; especially news that gets the barest mention everywhere else. Their excellent reporters can use a hand now. Please read and sign:

Just In Case A Reader Happens By With Some Idea, Or Knows Where To Share This One:

Federal court OKs Iowa’s “cruel” book ban law in stunning LGBTQ+ defeat

The idea behind these laws seems to be if they can hide that LGBTQ+ people / kids exist they can prevent the acceptance and tolerance of LGBTQ+ kids / people. In the minds of the haters who write these bills hopefully that will force people who are not straight or cis to stay hidden from society.  They are desperate to return to the 1950s when LGBTQ+ people had to stay hidden or risk losing everything they had, their job, housing, and friends.   They are pathetic in their need for everyone to be the same as they are, feel the same as they do, and to live as they do.  Why I did not know or understand.  The irrational hate for LGBTQ+ kids is really weird.  That they would rather have kids hurt, harmed, assaulted, ostracized, and possibly driven to suicide rather than give them acceptance or simply tolerance.   I don’t undestand what their gain is in this?   Hugs  

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/04/federal-court-oks-iowas-cruel-book-ban-law-in-stunning-lgbtq-defeat/

April 2026

Photo of the author

John Russell (He/Him)April 7, 2026, 1:00 pm EDT· Updated on April 8, 2026
An empty classroomShutterstock

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit has ruled that Iowa can enforce a 2023 law restricting classroom instruction on LGBTQ+ topics and access to certain books while legal challenges against the law proceed.

On Monday, the three-judge panel overturned injunctions previously issued by lower courts in two separate lawsuits challenging aspects of the Senate File 496, according to the Associated Press and The Des Moines Register.

Passed by the Iowa state legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds in 2023, the law prohibits “any program, curriculum, test, survey, questionnaire, promotion, or instruction relating to gender identity or sexual orientation” in kindergarten through sixth grade. It also bans materials featuring “descriptions or visual depictions of a sex act” from school libraries and classrooms — a provision which critics say is intended to ban books featuring LGBTQ+ characters and themes.

The law went into effect on July 1, 2023. The following November, the ACLU of Iowa and Lambda Legal sued the state on behalf of LGBTQ+ advocacy organization Iowa Safe Schools and seven students and their families, challenging SF 496’s classroom instruction ban.

Last May, a federal judge issued a split decision, upholding the law’s ban on discussion of gender identity and sexual orientation in K–6 classrooms, but blocking its ban on school “promotions” and “programs” that acknowledge the existence of LGBTQ+ people. U.S. District Judge Stephen Locher also blocked a provision of the law banning schools from providing “accommodation that is intended to affirm the student’s gender identity” without notifying their parents, writing that S.F. 496 was impermissibly vague about what constitutes an “accommodation.”

Writing for the Eighth Circuit on Monday, Judge Ralph Erickson held that the state’s interpretation of the law as requiring school “programs” and “promotions” to only encompass curricular activities does not violate the U.S. Constitution. However, the court did not address whether it is constitutionally permissible for the state to ban specific groups and extracurricular programs, such as Gender & Sexuality Alliance groups, because the Iowa Safe Schools lawsuit did not challenge specific applications of the law, according to the Register.  

The court also disagreed with Judge Locher’s ruling that the law’s language around “accommodations” was too vague, restoring S.F. 496’s ban on schools accommodating students’ gender identities without outing them to their parents.

In a separate November 2023 lawsuit, the Iowa State Education Association was joined by publisher Penguin Random House and several prominent authors of banned books in a challenge to S.F. 496’s book-banning provision. Last March, Judge Locher sided with the plaintiffs, issuing a preliminary injunction preventing schools from removing books it considers “obscene” from classrooms and libraries.

Again, writing for the Eighth Circuit in a separate decision Monday, Judge Erickson disagreed w  ith Locher’s ruling that school library books are not part a school’s curriculum. Erickson wrote that a school’s library catalogue constitutes government speech and can be restricted by state law, according to the Register.

The decisions on both cases send them back to the district court. But as the Register notes, the Eighth Circuit indicated in both rulings that the plaintiffs could not show a “likelihood of success on the merits” in their challenges to S.F. 496.

At the same time, in a joint press release the ACLU of Iowa and Lambda Legal noted that the rulings narrow “where and how the law may be applied.”

“The prohibition regarding sexual orientation and so-called gender theory applies only to specific, mandatory instruction on these topics during class time. The law, as currently interpreted, does not require schools to prohibit student expression of LGBTQ+ identity nor does it limit the sponsorship or promotion of GSAs,” ACLU of Iowa Senior Staff Attorney Thomas Story said.

“The court’s interpretation of the provision on banning books is that it applies only to those that specifically describe or depict one of those sex acts defined in Iowa’s criminal law. And with the forced outing provision, a report would be made to parents or guardians only if a student specifically requests a school accommodation for the stated purpose of affirming a gender identity different from their registration forms,” Story added.

In a statement responding to the court’s decision, Iowa State Education Association president Joshua Brown told the Register that the case was “about much more than legal technicalities.”

“It is about protecting the freedom of speech and the right to share ideas — values guaranteed by the First Amendment,” Brown said. “Our schools should be safe spaces where students are free to learn, teachers can use their professional expertise without fear, and families can trust that education is based on open inquiry rather than government censorship.”

A spokesperson for Penguin Random House indicated in a statement to the Register that the company intends to keep fighting against S.F. 496. Similarly, Lambda Legal Senior Attorney Nathan Maxwell called the ruling “a setback,” but noted that “it is not the end of this fight.”

“Iowa’s SF 496 is a cruel and unconstitutional law that silences LGBTQ+ children, erases their existence from classrooms, and forces educators to expose vulnerable students to potential harm at home,” Maxwell said in a statement. “We will continue to use every legal tool available to protect these young people. They deserve nothing less.”

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John Russell is a writer and editor based in New York City. In addition to covering politics and entertainment for LGBTQ Nation, he has written for Vanity Fair, Slate, People, Billboard, and Out. He also writes about film, TV, and pop culture in his free newsletter Johnny Writes…

Space Stuff

What’s New at the Earth Observatory April 7, 2026

Image of the Day

NASA’s Earth Observatory brings you the Earth, every day: sharing images, stories, and discoveries about the environment, Earth systems, and climate that emerge from NASA research, including its satellite missions, in-the-field research, and models.

Drought Parches Florida

4 min read

The state was unusually dry for much of 2025, but the intensity of the drought has ratcheted up since January…

Apr 7, 2026

——————————————-

Faster Detection of Forest Loss

7 min read

Scientists pioneered a new system that combines data from multiple Earth-observing satellites to identify forest clearing up to 100 days…

Apr 6, 2026

——————————————–

Barents Sea Tied to Low Arctic Sea Ice

4 min read

Patches of open water in the region contributed to low sea ice extent across the Arctic in March 2026, which…

Apr 3, 2026


Space Purge

Hegseth is firing Black generals

Clay Jones

The crew of Artemis II set a record for the farthest-traveled humans from Earth, and they still could not get away from Donald Trump. The mission had a 45-minute blackout from communication with Earth while flying over the dark side of the moon, and Donald Trump was waiting for them when they came out of it.

The astronauts had a very uncomfortable and awkward 12-minute Earth-to-space call, facilitated by NASA administrator and Trump acolyte, Jared Isaacman. During the call, Trump told the astronauts how they would be honored if he got their autographs. They were also honored by Trump blowing smoke up their asses and telling them that he had saved NASA from extinction when, in reality, he tried to cut their budget by 24% when he returned to office for his second term. Not just that, (snip-MORE)


And now, this brilliant story from a friend of the blog: