Today’s Morning Memo from Talking Points Memo.
Trumpโs Corruption Is Whatโs Tanking the Economy
INSIDE: Eric Swalwell … Tony Gonzales … Pope Leo
David Kurtz Apr 14, 2026

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 07: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) welcomes Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban as he arrives at the White House on November 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump and Orban are holding a bilateral lunch today and are expected to discuss trade and energy. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Itโs the Corruption, Stupid
In the aftermath of Viktor Orbรกnโs defeat in Hungary, a typically shallow conventional wisdom has already emerged that unless President Trump gets the economy turned around, Republicans are going to have hell to pay in the 2026 and 2028 elections.
The NYT quotes the right-wing commentator Rod Dreher, who decamped to Hungary to work for an Orbรกn-funded think tank, as explaining the election result thusly: โWhen all boats arenโt rising, everybody looks at whoโs on the yacht. In terms of MAGA, populism is great, but if you canโt deliver on the economy, none of it is going to matter.โ
That is abundantly true and yet terribly misleading because the economic mess weโre in is entirely of Trumpโs own doing. Heโs not the usual American president held hostage to the vagaries and cycles of an economy largely beyond his control.
In historic fashion, Trump has torpedoed key pillars of the global economy by launching unprecedented trade wars and an unjustified elective war in the Middle East that has bottled up world oil supplies to such an extent that it threatens a recession. At home, he has dramatically throttled back the economic engine of immigration, targeted Americaโs world leading universities, and decimated its vibrant scientific and biomedical research base.
Except for the racist assault on immigrants, all of these moves are not driven by ideological imperatives but by corrupt impulses. The economic damage Trump has done was crafted purposely to create opportunities for self-enrichment for him and his allies. It generates its own currency which can be used to perpetuate his political power. What he dispenses he can take away.
The AP sums up the Trump family kleptocracy succinctly:
The family real estate business is undergoing the fastest overseas expansion since its founding a century ago, each deal potentially shaping everything from tariffs to military aid.
Led by Eric, and his brother, Donald Jr., the family business has expanded into cryptocurrencies with ventures that brought in billions of dollars but raised questions about whether some big investors received favorable treatment in return.
The brothers have also joined or invested in a number of companies that aim to do business with the government their father runs. Last month, they struck a deal giving them stakes worth millions in an armed drone maker seeking contracts with the Pentagon and with Gulf states under attack by Iran and dependent on the U.S. military led by their father.
It always sounds a bit earnest to deplore corruption, but one of the practical reasons for eschewing corruption is because at best it acts like an invisible tax on economic growth. At worst, it corrodes the economic engine to the point that it doesnโt properly function any longer. Before Trump, the United States was a world leader in combatting corporate and political corruption abroad for the unapologetically realpolitik reason that American companies could win on a level playing field. Under Trump II, the DOJ has explicitly stopped enforcing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and weโre now in a grubby race to the bottom.
Any notion that Trump can get the economy โback on trackโ or dampen the economic shockwaves he has unleashed ignores the substance of what heโs done. Not only are Trumpโs second term attacks on economic growth hard to reverse, let alone quickly, theyโre deeply wired into who he is and what heโs about.
The Economic Warning Signs
- The Middle East conflict isย causingย oil scarcity and rising prices that are contributing to significant โdemand destructionโ which could lead to the steepest drop-off in demand for oil since the COVID slowdown, the International Energy Agency is forecasting in itsย latest outlook.
- The International Monetary Fundย warnsย that the Middle East conflict will slow economic growth, fuel inflation and raises the possibility of a global recession.
Latest on the Middle East Conflict โฆ
- Israeli and Lebanese officialsย gatheredย in D.C. for rare direct talks โ the first in a decade โ as the Netanyahu government has seized on the wider conflict to advance Israelโs position on the ground in Lebanon.
- Bitter irony alert: Talks between Iran and Trump administration are complicated by โthe risk that any agreement that emerges may resemble the 2015 nuclear accordโ that Trump abrogated in his first term, theย NYT reports.
- House Republicans have again abdicated their oversight roles byย pushing offย until at least May testimony originally scheduled for next week from senior Pentagon officials on the war in Iran.
Latest on the Middle East Conflict โฆ
- Israeli and Lebanese officialsย gatheredย in D.C. for rare direct talks โ the first in a decade โ as the Netanyahu government has seized on the wider conflict to advance Israelโs position on the ground in Lebanon.
- Bitter irony alert: Talks between Iran and Trump administration are complicated by โthe risk that any agreement that emerges may resemble the 2015 nuclear accordโ that Trump abrogated in his first term, theย NYT reports.
- House Republicans have again abdicated their oversight roles byย pushing offย until at least May testimony originally scheduled for next week from senior Pentagon officials on the war in Iran.
Lawless Boat Strike Death Toll: 170
The U.S. attacked an alleged drug-smuggling boat in the Eastern Pacific on Monday, bringing the campaignโs overall death toll to at least 170. In announcing the attack, the U.S. Southern Command introduced new Orwellian language: โApplying total systemic friction on the cartels.โ
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is waging a pressure campaign against the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to squash a potential investigation into the boat strike campaign, The Intercept reports.
Must Read
TPMโs Josh Kovensky reports from Frisco, Texas, the countryโs fastest growing city and a haven for South Asian immigrants, which far-right activists are seizing on as โproofโ of the Great Replacement Theory.
Thread of the Day

IMPORTANT
Local authorities in St. Paul, Minnesota have launched a criminal investigation into the notorious ICE detention in January of Hmong American ChongLy โScottโ Thao. Theyโre investigating the warrantless raid on an American citizenโs home as a potential kidnapping, burglary, and false imprisonment.
Quote of the Day
Cheryl Kelley in The Hill:
American law is built on a simple rule: The government cannot get around legal limits by creating a new structure to do the same thing another way. The Posse Comitatus Act reflects that rule. It exists to prevent the federal government from using a large, armed force for general policing inside the U.S. But by tripling ICEโs size, giving it $75 billion in multi-year funding insulated from normal oversight, and deploying it far beyond immigration enforcement โ from neighborhood operations to general airport security โ the administration has achieved in practice what those restrictions were designed to prevent.
Swalwell and Gonzales Both Resign
In a rapid-fire combo of scandal-fueled resignations, Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Tony Gonzales (R-TX) both announced last evening that they would resign their seats โ though neither gave a date certain for their departures. Depending on the exact timing, the resignations should be a wash and not effect majority control of the House.
Two Big Wins
- In the lawsuit over the removal of the Pride flag at the Stonewall National Monument, the Trump administration has reversed course andย confirmedย in a new filing that it will reinstate the flag and not remove it again.
- The American Library Association and a union of cultural workers have reached a settlement in their lawsuit against the Trump administration thatย savesย the federal Institute of Museum and Library Services, the NYT reports: โThe Trump administration reaffirmed that it had reinstated all previously canceled grants, in keeping with a separate legal ruling last year, and reversed all staff reductions. It also promised not to take any further steps to reduce the agency.โ
Good Read
Wired: Government Workers Say Theyโre Getting Inundated With Religion
Pope Making Everyone Look Dumb
The senior senator from Ohio:
Unintentional Edginess From CSPAN
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