From Clay Jones-

He’s published more, but I got behind. Here is 11/11’s.

Rants, Strokes, and Cartoons by Clay Jones

A little summary of what’s been going on Read on Substack

Here’s the latest signature. This was done on my iPad, which was a little sad for me because I hadn’t used it in over a month. I had to reboot my Procreate program, and there was some lag. Don’t worry, baby. Daddy’s coming home.

A hard part about writing my signature is controlling my arm and applying pressure. Someone mentioned that I should strum one of my guitars as physical therapy, but I think there are better exercises. Plus, not being able to strum a guitar only makes me sad. It’s almost as sad as not being able to draw.

So why did six Democrats (one Independent and whatever the fuck Fetterman is) cave in on the government shutdown? They had just overwhelmingly won elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia last week. The public was correctly blaming Donald Trump and Republicans for the shutdown. Proof of that was Donald Trump’s fight with courts to prevent snap benefits from feeding the hungry. Are Democrats upset over flight delays? Are they afraid Thanksgiving would be ruined? What did they get for rolling over?

Michael De Adder correctly has them surrendering.

Fake cartoonists Margolis and Cox have them surrendering, too. I can’t tell what’s going on with the person in the left-hand corner because the artwork is so bad. Why didn’t they finish writing “government?” There is plenty of room.

In the new deal, SNAP and WIC will receive additional funding, and there are a few other modest concessions on spending levels elsewhere in the government. Laid-off federal workers will be rehired, and furloughed federal workers will be given back pay. But remember, this entire fight was over subsidies for the Affordable Care Act being suspended. In exchange for rolling over, Democrats got a promise from Republicans that there would be a vote on healthcare subsidies. Basically, Democrats got a promise from Republicans that they’ll think about it.

Ezra Klein, an opinion columnist for The New York Times, wrote, “This, in the end, is the calculation the defecting Senate Democrats are making: They don’t think a longer shutdown will cause Trump to cave. They just think it will cause more damage.”

I understand why Democrats may get that impression. Donald Trump is flying to Asia, playing golf, traveling to me MAGA-Lardo, going to football games for no fucking reason, and ramping up support to name the new stadium in Washington, DC after him, and it’s obvious he doesn’t care about people starving. So what does Trump care if the government shuts down? And what do Republicans care either? They’re all on vacation. Mike Johnson sent Republicans on vacation. They want Democrats to own the shutdown, but they’re not doing anything to end it.

It is especially frustrating because these Democrats have been in Washington, DC long enough to know better than to trust Republicans. I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans never even hold a vote on the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. I mean, House Republicans did not make this deal, so they don’t have to hold a vote on the subsidies. Only Senate Republicans have promised to hold a vote.

Kicking Lucy’s football is a lazy trope, but John Darkow has it right that Democrats are nothing but a bunch of suckers.

Chuck Schumer did not vote for this plan, but do you blame him as the Democratic Senate leader for it happening, as Dave Whamond has cartooned about here? Personally, whether Schumer deserves part of the blame or not, doesn’t matter in concerning his fate, as he has always been a weak leader.

Democrats have the view that Donald Trump is not caving, thus they’re caving into in without even negotiating. Are you telling me that Donald Trump’s strategy of not giving a fuck is working to sway Democrats?

Chris Britt has it right that these eight are nothing but a bunch of chickens.

Mike Luckovich sure this cartoon last week or so, but now I believe it’s the Democrats, who are curving themselves up. If nothing else, they’re serving Obamacare up for the slaughter.

I don’t think anyone has explained the healthcare subsidy situation better than Matt Davies has. As someone who is benefiting from Obamacare and government subsidies, I feel like we’re getting rolled over.

And Steve…

I know you get reprints when you don’t blame anyone specific, but it wasn’t just Congress that was responsible for the shutdown. Maybe someday you’ll be able to cartoon about issues after you understand them.

This was almost as cowardly as…

…when Ramirez was afraid to blame Donald Trump for pardoning George Santos. Seriously, Michael… “they” did not pardon George Santos. Only one person could have pardoned George Santos, and I don’t know if you know how the Constitution works, but it doesn’t say that person is “they.”

Was Rudy Giuliani guilty of trying to help Trump steal the 2020 election? Donald Trump thinks he is. That’s why he got a pardon this week. This isn’t like Joe Biden giving his son and Dr. Anthony Fauci pardons, Fauci being preemptive, because Donald Trump has proved those were necessary as he has turned the entire Justice Department into his personal attack dog, and is ordering it to go after his political enemies and seek revenge. But nobody was really going after Rudy on criminal charges in federal courts. A pardon does not save Rudy from paying out the civil judgment from the Georgia election workers any more than it stops his farts or black shoe dye from running down his skull.

Bill Bramhall, who was a couple of days after Lucko’s turkey, caught that this pardon was in the right season.

Along with Giuliani, Trump pardoned John Eastman, a corrupt lawyer who advised Trump’s 2020 campaign; Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff; Boris Epshteyn, a presidential adviser; and Sidney Powell, an insane lawyer who blamed conspiracy theories for Trump’s defeat to Joe Biden. None of these people has been charged in federal courts, though they have been charged in state courts. Trump’s pardons are only symbolic as they don’t protect his friends from state charges.

This is another example of Trump using the presidency to help himself and his friends and not the American people. This is what happens when a felon gets pardon powers.

I’m sick of the new normal, which includes pandering to a 79-year-old toddler. Part of this new normal is naming shit after Trump. There’s talk of renaming the Kennedy Center after Donald Trump. There’s talk of renaming the metro system in Washington, DC after Trump, the $1000 savings account for newborns is called the Trump account, lawmakers had proposed renaming Dulles International Airport after Trump, and now, Trump is demanding that the new football stadium on the old RFK Stadium site be named after him. Donald Trump didn’t have anything to do with securing the stadium deal any more than he did with ending the war between Hamas and Israel.

As for the Metro, a Republican introduced a bill that threatened to withhold federal funding for Washington’s rail system unless the name was changed to the Trump train. Why? There’s no fucking reason given for this fealty to Trump. Republicans want to hold funding hostage, not for any policies or improvement, but just to name the system after Donald Trump. I seriously doubt Donald Trump has ever taken a ride on the Metro.

As you may know from reading this blog, I love Subway systems. I use the Metro more than any other train system, and it’s one I know very well. I will take it as a personal insult if the name is officially changed to the fucking Trump Train. This will be an insult to the entire city of Washington, and no longtime resident of the city will ever refer to it as the goddamn Trump Train.

I have said it before, and I will say it again. This is some Saddam Hussein-level bullshit. Of course, Republicans don’t care about the optics anymore.

I’m very surprised the Supreme Court refused to revisit gay marriage. You know if zealots Clarence Thomas and Amy Coney Barrett had their way, they would try to overturn it the same way they did with Roe. Precedent doesn’t mean anything to the Supreme Court anymore. Neither does the Constitution nor the law. SCOTUS would rather go by the Old Testament than by the United States Constitution.

Donald Trump is promising tariff payments to middle-income Americans. He said, “We’re going to issue a dividend to our middle-income people and lower-income people of about $2,000. And we’re going to use the remaining tariffs to lower our debt.”

Two things: this contradicts his argument that tariffs are not taxes being paid by American consumers, and his tariffs aren’t bringing in enough revenue to give everyone $2,000. If you make Americans pay these tariff dividends from the budget, then aren’t Americans paying for the dividends just like they’re paying for the tariffs? Donald Trump doesn’t even have any details for this new plan. He thinks it’s magic money that’s going to appear out of thin air.

Donald Trump wants the tariffs to pay off the deficit. American consumers are paying the tariffs. Donald Trump wants to pay American consumers out of the debt for paying for the tariffs. You don’t need to be an economics major to know that this is madness.

As Bill points out, it’s the tariff, stupid. If Democrats do come out winning over Trump’s tariff policy, I’m sure they will find a way to blow it.

Donald Trump is now demanding that the BBC apologize to him for editing part of a video of his speech before the January 6 attack, and to pay him lots of money, or he will sue them for $1 billion. This sounds like Dr. Evil threatening the BBC.

As Jack points out, ethics are lapsing with the American media. Now, when 60 Minutes interviews him (after CBS allowed him to bribe them), it’s about as ethical as when Fox News does not give him follow-up questions.

Trump believes the video made him sound more violent than he really was, ignoring that the attack on January 6 was violent and an attempt to overturn the 2020 election. But as usual, Donald Trump is demanding to be bribed. The American press has failed to stand firm against Donald Trump and his threats, so I hope the British press does not give in. I need to believe in something.

Joel Pett points out what Donald Trump wants edited out.

This is one reason why I like to have the BBC as one of the four channels in the multiview feature.

Have you heard of Mar-a-Lago face? Usually, people who have a little work done don’t want to advertise it. Most people lie about it when questioned. But now it seems that they’re all going the Kristi Noem route, and going for the Melania. Having your lips filled and being proud of it is very much a Palm Beach thing, but now it’s extending to Washington, DC. Now there are MAGAts in Washington who are having work done, and they’re proud of it. They want everyone to know, which means their faces look fucking stupid. It seems the facelift of Washington isn’t just going to be in the city. I guess collagen-filled lips are better for kissing Donald Trump’s ass with. Dammit, that’s a political cartoon.

If I see a bunch of Kristie Noems on the “Trump Train,” I’m going to lose my shit. Last June, during Trump’s birthday parade, I did tell some MAGAts on the metro to fuck Trump. A MAGAt’s right to free speech to wear that ugly cap on the Metro also applies to my free speech to tell them to go fuck themselves.

Let’s talk about some stroke stuff. I am currently wearing a temporary heart sensor. I hate it. Since I got out of the hospital, it’s been the bane of my existence.

(snip-go see. It’s a decent-sized blog entry.)

Let’s talk about Trump and Obamacare royalties….

Please watch. As she says the site is called Dunning Kruger and states it is not fake news or lies because it is totally fictional and made up. But tRump believes it. Hugs

Jon Stewart “Can’t F**king Believe” Democrats Caved on the Shutdown | The Daily Show

It’s A Day Of Observance In Poland, Too-

This blogger is a newer subscriber to Scottie’s, and comments here some. Here is a short bit with info on Poland’s November 11th Independence Day observance and history.

11 listopada Święto Niepodległości

My Chromebook translates these posts for me; I think most computers do that. Just let me know if I should do the copy-paste thing here with this.

Health News Updates

Infant formula botulism cluster, black box warning for HRT, flu is waking up, new blood pressure guidelines, and more by Katelyn Jetelina

This is your weekly Dose. Read on Substack

The shutdown may finally be coming to an end. Our health care costs, unfortunately, will not. I’ll be back on Wednesday with a deep dive into just how spectacularly absurd our health care system has become.

In the meantime, RSV and flu are picking up speed, and a concerning infant formula recall has been linked to a rare botulism cluster, thanks to a small but mighty team in California. The FDA is expected to remove the black box warning from hormone replacement therapy—a move that’s scientifically sound but bound to spark drama from HHS. We also have new blood pressure guidelines that could make prevention a lot more personal. And amidst it all, a few more pieces of genuinely good news to end on a high note.

Let’s dive in!

Disease “weather” report: RSV and flu gaining momentum

It will take some time for the CDC data systems to ramp up again after being offline for over 40 days. For now, we’ll continue to rely on the alternative sources, such as Dr. Caitlin Rivers’ updates and the PopHive dashboards.

RSV continues to climb slowly but steadily, especially among children under five. National growth is still linear—not yet exponential—but that acceleration could occur at any time.

The flu remains relatively low but is beginning to increase, particularly among young children. As Dr. Rivers notes, “Hawaii has moved to moderate activity, Arizona has surpassed its seasonal baseline, and New York cases jumped 49% in the past week.”

Source: New York State Department of Health Respiratory Surveillance Report

U.S. childhood flu vaccination rates have dropped from 62% to 49% over the past five years. Last year saw one of the deadliest seasons on record, with 280 pediatric deaths—the highest since tracking began in 2004. About 90% of those children weren’t fully vaccinated. Our deadliest flu season came at a time of historically low vaccination rates, which can’t be a coincidence. We don’t yet know this season’s coverage, but if it falls further, we could be facing another tragic record.

Covid-19 remains in a lull, though we typically see a winter rise starting in mid-to-late November.

I’m really hoping these three viruses don’t peak simultaneously. Hospitals strain under just a bad flu season; I couldn’t imagine the “big three” all at the same time. Historically, their peaks have staggered, but given how little we truly understand about these overlapping patterns, that may have been more a matter of luck than a rule. Time will tell.

What this means for you: This is the best time to get vaccinated. It’s certainly not too late.

Infant formula outbreak and Listeria in pasta

Over the weekend, a troubling cluster of infant botulism cases was linked to ByHeart Whole Nutrition Infant Formula. Even during a government shutdown and an increasingly challenging environment, outbreak teams have been working around the clock to protect our most vulnerable.

What this is: Infant botulism is extremely rare but serious. It occurs when Clostridium botulinum spores—commonly found in soil, dust, and some foods—germinate in a baby’s intestines and release toxins that can paralyze muscles, interfere with breathing, and require intensive care. In a typical year, the U.S. sees 160–180 cases, often linked to environmental exposure or foods like honey. Even a small cluster of cases is a clear red flag.

What we know: Clostridium botulinum spores have been detected in ByHeart infant formula, resulting in the hospitalization of 13 infants across 10 states. The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) played a key role in identifying this cluster. CDPH is the only source in the world for BabyBIG—the lifesaving antitoxin—and manages all clinician calls and treatment distribution. Their team noticed a spike in requests and discovered that the affected infants all consumed the same formula brand, prompting an alert to CDC. Importantly, ByHeart produces just 1% of U.S. infant formula, so this alone is unlikely to cause a national shortage. (Be sure to sign up for YLE CA for a deeper dive this Thursday.)

What we don’t know: Epidemiologists are investigating whether contamination is truly confined to ByHeart or reflects a broader issue in the manufacturing or ingredient sourcing process.

What to do: Stop using ByHeart Whole Nutrition Infant Formula immediately. Retailers should pull it from shelves, including Amazon, Kroger, Walmart, Whole Foods, Target, and Sam’s Club.

There is also the ongoing Listeria outbreak associated with frozen pasta dishes, including some sold at Trader Joe’s and other grocery chains. We’ve covered this before, but according to the agency’s ongoing investigation, two more brands of food are linked to the outbreak. There’s a long list of recalled products you can find here. Throw out immediately.

In total, there have been 27 illnesses reported, 25 hospitalizations, and six deaths in 18 states since late September.

Case Count Map Provided by CDC: Image includes map of the United States of America with the following states highlighted as having cases in this outbreak: California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington — Number of cases associated with the pasta *Listeria outbreak*. Source: CDC

HRT ‘black box’ warning may be gone soon

Word is that the FDA will remove the black box warning from hormone replacement therapy (HRT) this week. (It may now be pushed back with the government reopening.) If this announcement reflects the HRT review conducted at HHS last month, it will likely be messy and riddled with inaccuracies. However, if you look at the science without the drama, removing the black label is not unreasonable.

The black box warning—the strictest warning label, meant for drugs with potentially life-threatening risks—was enacted after a 2002 Women’s Health Initiative study found increased risks of stroke and breast cancer. Since then, research has revealed crucial nuance: risks depend on timing, dose, and delivery. Starting HRT earlier, using low-dose or localized estrogen, and tailoring therapy to each woman can be both effective and safe.

What this story is really about: Menopause is universal, yet too often misunderstood. While the science continues to evolve, the major problem is that clinical practice and training have lagged far behind. Women deserve evidence-based care, informed clinicians, and the freedom to make choices rooted in both science and compassion. We are still far from what is needed for women.

POLL

(snip-poll won’t embed here; go to the Substack page. The question is if readers would like to see a deep dive into HRT. If you wish to vote, click “read on Substack”, above.)

New blood pressure guidelines

Major new blood pressure guidelines dropped for the first time in years.

At the center of the update is an enhanced assessment tool called the PREVENT calculator, developed by the American Heart Association. It’s designed to estimate a person’s 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease using factors like blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes. The model was built using data from 6.5 million U.S. adults aged 30 to 79, making it one of the most representative tools available.

Here’s what stands out:

A new threshold for medication. The key number to watch is 7.5%. If your 10-year risk of heart disease is at or above that level, physicians are now encouraged to consider medication even if your blood pressure hovers around 130/80 mmHg. If your risk is below that, lifestyle changes, like healthy eating, exercising, and better stress management, remain the first step.
A focus on home monitoring. The guidelines also emphasize checking blood pressure at home. Growing evidence shows that home readings may actually be more accurate predictors of long-term risk than in-office measurements. So spending $45 on an arm monitor if you have hypertension might be a great (even lifesaving!) idea.

What this means for you: This makes heart health more personalized than ever. You can calculate your own 10-year risk using the PREVENT calculator (although you will need some pretty specific numbers from your last blood panel). Regardless, aim for blood pressure readings below 130/80, and use these new tools to guide smarter—and earlier—prevention.

Good news!

Here are some of the great things worth highlighting:

The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) is standing up for science. The organization filed an updated lawsuit last week against HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., asking a court to disband a panel (ACIP) appointed by RFK Jr. and to overturn recent decisions made by that panel. Then, to proceed under court supervision. The legal move is a direct push to restore expert-led vaccine policymaking.
The Vaccine Integrity Project (VIP) is stepping up on Hep B. With the next ACIP meeting coming up in early December, where the agenda will likely include the Hepatitis B vaccine for infants, the childhood vaccination schedule, and HPV—VIP, an independent group of scientists formed in response to waning trust in RFK Jr.’s ACIP, is conducting an evidence review ahead of what could be a contentious meeting. Their work helps ensure the science remains front and center.
Vaping among youth has seen a decline; but we still have a long way to go. A new study has found that the number of U.S. teens vaping has decreased overall. That’s progress. But among those who still do it, vaping is becoming more frequent and harder to quit—signs that use is shifting from experimentation toward dependence for some. If you have a teen who vapes, check out the EX Program, which is a free, anonymous text-messaging program designed specifically for young people who vape. There’s also SmokefreeTXT for Teens.

Question grab bag: You ask, we answer!

How long does the Covid-19 vaccine last? I got mine in September, do I need to get another?

A study published last week confirmed what we’ve consistently seen: protection against Covid-19 wanes over time. A study of more than 1.8 million Americans from the previous season showed protection against infection and severe disease declined after 4-5 months. The findings underscore the benefit of getting a Covid-19 vaccine every six months, especially for adults over 65, who accounted for nearly 80% of hospitalizations in the study.

I have seen this name, around and about. Good info:

Mosckerr: A Warning

“Apparently, Sunday night is the new big news night.”

The Overnight News by Joyce Vance
Read on Substack

Apparently, Sunday night is the new big news night. To keep us up to date on today’s developments, it’s a rare Monday morning update.

Late last night, Trump issued pardons. However, it’s an unusual list that leaves us reading tea leaves, because these aren’t individuals being prosecuted by the federal government or even people who are at risk of being prosecuted, given the current administration—those are the people who usually want and need a pardon. These pardons don’t apply to ongoing state prosecutions of fake slates of electors in places like Arizona and Nevada.

These names still don’t appear on the White House’s official pardon list. News of the pardons came from a tweet made by Trump’s man at DOJ, Ed Martin. And it wasn’t subtle: “No MAGA left behind.”

The list names a cast of familiar characters, including Rudy Giuliani, Boris Epshteyn, John Eastman, Mark Meadows, Sidney Powell, Ken Chesebro, Michael Roman, Christina Bobb, Kelli Ward, and Jenna Ellis. They are all people who advanced Trump’s effort to claim victory after losing the 2020 election. But that’s not the full extent of it. The document Martin posted purports to be a broad pardon, akin to those following the Civil War that pardons everyone involved (although here, there is no requirement to take a loyalty oath to the United States as there was following the war). It’s part of Trump’s ongoing effort to rewrite the history of January 6 and the insurrection and a signal that anyone who serves him will be protected and rewarded.

Late last night, the First Circuit rejected the administration’s request for a stay of a lower court order requiring it to make SNAP payments from emergency funds. That left the ball in the Supreme Court’s hands. Justice Jackson promptly issued a briefing schedule that requires both sides, as well as any amici, to file their briefs on the matter today. This proceeding is limited to the question of whether the district court’s order that the administration must proceed with November SNAP payments should be stayed (paused) while the lawsuit proceeds.

The First Circuit panel made the stakes plain in its opinion: 42 million people, or one in every eight Americans, rely on these benefits to keep hunger at bay.

First thing Monday morning, Justice Jackson issued a briefing order requiring the DOJ to file its response to the First Circuit’s decision by 4:00 p.m. and giving the plaintiffs until 8:00 a.m. Tuesday morning to respond. The government is “the applicant” at this stage of the case.

Federal Law enforcement abuses in Chicago. The Justice Department filed a notice of appeal over Chicago federal Judge Sara Ellis’ preliminary injunction restricting the use of force against protesters and journalists. If you stop for just a moment and zoom out, the utter lunacy here comes into focus. The government is fighting for the right to use excessive force against peaceful protesters. Why not take the obvious position that while it disagrees with the Judge’s assessment of the facts, it intends to fully comply with the law regarding treatment of people exercising their First Amendment rights? But that is not the government’s view of the matter.

Finally, marriage equality is safe, at least for now. The Supreme Court issued its list of grants and denials on cases from Friday’s conference this morning. The case I wrote to you about last night, involving Kentucky court clerk Kim Davis, who objected to issuing marriage licenses to same sex couples, was on the denial list, so the Court will not hear Davis’ appeal. That means there were not four Justices who wanted to hear the case, which, as I mentioned, doesn’t have particularly attractive facts for undoing longstanding precedent. This denial doesn’t tell us anything about whether the Court might be interested in undoing gay Americans’ rights if the “right” case comes along.

Last night, I started the newsletter by writing, “It’s going to be another blockbuster, high-stakes legal week. If you feel a bit overwhelmed, like I did Friday night at dinner when legal opinions were breaking out everywhere while I tried to have a meal with friends, remember that I’ll be here for you all week to try and keep things organized and understandable.” I didn’t expect it to be this soon, but the courts, for a change, are moving at lightning speed. Thank you for being here with me and reading Civil Discourse.

We’re in this together,

Joyce

We’ve Probably Already Heard It,

but just in case, some decent news:

Supreme Court rejects long-shot effort to overturn same-sex marriage ruling

The court turned away an appeal filed by Kim Davis, a former county clerk in Kentucky who was sued after refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple.

By Lawrence Hurley

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday turned away a long-shot attempt to overturn the landmark 2015 ruling that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide.

Without comment, the justices rejected an appeal brought by Kim Davis, a former county clerk in Kentucky who was sued in 2015 for refusing to issue marriage licenses because of her opposition to same-sex marriage based on her religious beliefs.

Her latest appeal in the case, brought a decade later, had attracted considerable attention amid fears that the court could overturn the 2015 same-sex marriage decision, Obergefell v. Hodges, in the aftermath of the 2022 ruling that overturned the landmark abortion rights decision, Roe v. Wade. (snip-MORE, with video on the page)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-long-shot-effort-overturn-sex-marriage-ruling-rcna241113

Top Democratic Officials Target Their Most Vulnerable Constituents In New Strategy Document

https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/top-democratic-officials-target-their?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=994764&post_id=177659051&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2r5nx6&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Top Democratic officials put out a new guide, entitled “Deciding to Win,” that encourages Democrats to be a little more like Republicans on “identity and cultural issues.”

Erin Reed

Oct 31, 2025

Left: David Axelrod // Public domain, Middle: James Carville // JD Lasica // Wikimedia Commons, Right: David Plouffe // Noam Galai // Wikimedia Commons

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This week, the self-styled centrist group WelcomePAC released a document entitled “Deciding to Win”—advised on by some of the Democratic Party’s most prominent strategists, including David Axelrod, James Carville, and David Plouffe—urging Democrats to act a little more like Republicans on so-called “identity and cultural issues.” The 58-page memo reads like a compendium of the consultant class’s worst instincts, encouraging candidates to become little more than poll-tested avatars and walking focus groups, trading conviction for triangulation. While the document rarely defines which “cultural issues” it means, the few times it does make it clear: queer and transgender people stand to lose the most if this vision of the Democratic Party takes hold.

The document begins with five key pillars for the party. Some of them make a lot of sense, such as “messaging on an economic program centered on lowering costs, growing the economy, creating jobs, and expanding the social safety net,” critiquing “the outsized political and economic influence of” the “ultra-wealthy,” and support for a $15/h minimum wage. Others, though, encourage the party to abandon platforms that have been central to its identity and mission to protect the most vulnerable in society, calling for the party to “Moderate our positions where our agenda is unpopular, including on issues like immigration, public safety, energy production, and some identity and cultural issues.”

While the document rarely defines what “identity and cultural issues” means, the examples make its targets clear. Support for the Equality Act—legislation that would codify gender identity and sexual orientation as protected classes under federal law—is cited as proof the party has “moved left.” Another section lists “protecting the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans” as a priority voters supposedly don’t want Democrats to emphasize. Elsewhere, a discussion of how to mobilize voters “sitting on the couch” reveals that the most popular policy among them is “defining sex as binary and based on biology at birth across federal agencies.” Later in the document, it explicitly calls out transgender sports participation as an issue that the party should “moderate” on.

Screenshot of Deciding to Win Chart of “moderate” policies

Imagine a world where Democrats actually heeded this advice. The “define sex as binary” policy—already championed in Republican-led states and now embedded in everything the Trump administration does—has had devastating consequences for transgender Americans. It has stripped trans people of the ability to update their passports, creating serious barriers to travel; defunded organizations that affirm gender diversity; and fueled crackdowns on college campuses that allow trans students to use restrooms matching their gender identity. It’s a policy of bureaucratic erasure, one that threatens to undo decades of hard-won progress—yet it’s presented, almost casually, as a “moderate” position Democrats might adopt to win votes.

It’s a vision of politics that would turn Democrats into little more than Republican Lite—a “big tent” party spacious enough for those who despise us but not for those who most need protection. In that world, Democrats would lose not just the meaning of leadership but the very soul of why the party exists. And it’s a fantasy built on delusion: no amount of fine-tuned messaging or poll-tested calibration will ever transform the party into the perpetual winner these consultants imagine.

We don’t have to imagine what happens when Democrats follow this playbook — we’ve already seen it. In New Hampshire, Democrats capitulated on multiple anti-trans bills, including bans on youth sports participation and gender-affirming surgery, only to suffer one of the party’s worst defeats of the 2024 election cycle, losing 20 seats. By contrast, Democrats in Montana fought hard against similar measures and mounted some of the most visible resistance to anti-LGBTQ+ legislation in the country, picking up ten seats in the state House—one of the party’s strongest showings nationwide, in a state Trump carried easily. In Kentucky, Governor Andy Beshear vetoed anti-trans bills, including a sports ban, and still won reelection in a Trump +31 state. And in New York, a ballot measure enshrining gender identity protections outperformed Kamala Harris’s statewide margin by a wide margin.

Despite the evidence, a faction within the Democratic Party still treats queer and trans people as expendable—convinced that by trimming the edges of equality and tolerating “a little” discrimination, they can win back power. It’s a ruinous illusion. This kind of triangulation doesn’t blunt Republican attacks; it validates them. Every state that once embraced sports bans or “compromise” restrictions has since escalated to banning medical care, censoring books, and policing bathrooms. Capitulation has never advanced LGBTQ+ rights—not in policy, not in public opinion, not once. Democrats aren’t losing because they’ve been too loud or too firm in defending equality; they’re losing because the far right invests in its own moral narrative while Democrats second-guess theirs. The only way forward is to stand unapologetically on principle—as Andy Beshear did in Kentucky, citing it as the very reason for his success—not to chase the approval of consultants who mistake cowardice for strategy and appeasement for leadership.

Erin In The Morning is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a subscriber.

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