Exclusive: largest data analysis of its kind counters Trump’s aggressive efforts to deny trans minors’ existence
View image in fullscreen A protester is silhouetted against a trans pride flag during a pro-transgender rights protest outside of Seattle children’s hospital on 9 February. Photograph: Lindsey Wasson/AP
More than 2.8 million people now identify as transgender in the US, including an estimated 724,000 youth, according to a new data analysis that is the largest of its kind to date.
Researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Williams Institute used federal surveys and data from state health agencies to identify the size and demographics of the trans population in each state.
The analysis, shared with the Guardian and released on Wednesday, documented thousands of trans youth living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The findings counter Donald Trump’s aggressive efforts to deny the existence of trans minors, as his administration removes references to trans people across federal agencies and widely erodes protections and programs for LGBTQ+ communities.
The report builds on federal data collection efforts that the White House is now eliminating. The authors warn their study could be the last comprehensive portrait of the nation’s trans population for a decade or more as trans people are erased from vital US surveys, including health reports and crime data analyses.
The Williams Institute primarily relied on data from 2021 to 2023 from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveys and records disclosed by state health agencies. Some of the key findings include:
“Trans people live everywhere and are represented in every state,” said Dr Jody Herman, senior scholar of public policy at the Williams Institute and co-author of the report, noting the total US trans population was greater than the individual populations of more than a dozen states. “This is a substantial population that has unique concerns and barriers to getting their needs met, and lawmakers need to keep that in mind.”
The Williams Institute, a leading LGBTQ+ policy research center, has published national trans population counts since its 2011 report, which was the first of its kind as state-level data on gender identity became available. The estimates are considered the best available data and were cited by the US supreme court in its recent majority opinion upholding Tennessee’s ban on trans youth healthcare.
The quality and sources of the researchers’ data have improved from one report to the next, the researchers said, making it difficult to assess changes over time. But the researchers noted that the overall estimates of trans adults have remained relatively steady, while the latest data shows how younger people are now significantly more likely to identify as trans than older groups.
There are many factors contributing to youth identifying as trans at higher rates, including that younger people are more likely to answer these kinds of survey questions, said Dr Andrew Flores, Williams Institute distinguished visiting scholar and associate professor of government at American University.
“Younger people are growing up among other younger people who already hold more accepting attitudes toward LGBT and transgender people more broadly,” said Flores, a report co-author, citing increasingly visible signs of support, such as student walkouts in Florida in protest of anti-trans policies. “In this generation, they might be more willing and safe to identify that they are transgender, because they don’t see as much of a harm or threat as older generations.”
While some conservatives and anti-trans advocates have presented a reported rise in trans youth as a “social contagion”, suggesting youth are copying their peers, “the growth comes as people are now in an environment that allows them to fully express who they are,” Flores said.
Shifting language also affects generational differences, he said, noting how older groups were more likely to identify as lesbian or gay while younger people are more likely to identify as bisexual or pansexual. And while older trans people are more likely to identify as men or women, younger trans people more frequently identify as non-binary.
The report also found that the race and ethnicity of trans people was largely similar to broader US demographics, with Indigenous, Latino and multiracial adults slightly more likely to identify as trans than other groups.
The Trump administration, which has widely attacked data collection efforts across government, has moved to remove trans identity questions from two critical CDC behavioral health surveys and from Department of Justice surveys on crime victimization and sexual violence. The US Census Bureau has also taken steps to exclude gender identity from multiple surveys, according to the former director who resigned in February.
Those efforts followed Trump’s day-one executive order “restoring biological truth” to the government, which suggested that trans identity was “false” and directed the state department to deny trans people accurate passports.
The data loss will make it impossible for the Williams Institute to continue its analyses in their current form, and even if the next administration restored the surveys, the public would still be losing up to 10 years of data, which would be a devastating erosion of knowledge, the researchers said.
“We didn’t really have decent national data until around 10 years ago, so we just very recently got a grasp on how many people identify as trans in the US and what their characteristics are,” said Herman. “For these data sources to just suddenly disappear, it is a major setback. The population is not going to go away; we’re just not going to know more about them than what we have from our current sources.”
The data has frequently been cited by journalists, school boards, public health experts, civil rights lawyers, advocates fighting discriminatory legislation and lawmakers expanding trans rights. The researchers had hoped federal data could help illuminate how trans people were moving within the US as some have fled red states due to anti-trans laws, but that will be hard to track without national surveys, they said.
“In some policy circles, they say if you can’t be counted, you don’t count,” Flores added. “And for members of the LGBTQ+ community, to be able to see numbers that reflect their lived experiences is quite important.”
Imara Jones, founder of news organization TransLash Media, said there was no easy fix for the loss of national data backed by federal resources.
“It is meant to erase, and that erasure is meant to have real-world impacts, making it harder for people to be who they are,” Jones said.
Flores said the institute and others were discussing ways to fill the gaps and continue data collection without the federal government: “We’re not just going to close up shop. We’re going to try to find a way to keep telling these stories and be persistent.”
100% Christian hate. No one loves more than bigot Christians can hate. This would be a non-story except Kegseth is the head of the military with the authority to remove any group from the military he doesn’t like. Think about the idea that woman shouldn’t vote according to his preacher yet females in the military at every level have authority over men … so if they can’t be trusted to vote …? But Kegseth thinks the US military needs to be an all white male thuggish killing machines like the Russian military who are getting their asses kicked by the inclusive Ukrainian military. The Christian bigotry prevents people like him from seeing the truth. The idea of heavily muscled men facing each other on a field of battle is far in the past. Military tech is way more far advanced. It needs twink kids in the basement playing on gaming machines, it needs females who can out think every man around. Kegseth’s idea of manliness and the military makes me suspect him of having a man fetish, an Arnold Schwarzenegger fetish. It idealizes something that is not true and doesn’t exist. This man grew up on far too many he man cartoons and movies. Hugs.
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“We have to overturn Obergefell. Many people will say, ‘That ship’s sailed, man. Gay people are married. We can’t go back.’ Gay marriage does not exist in the world. It can’t, any more than a square triangle can exist. God created marriage. I had premarital counseling today, I opened up the bible to Genesis I and showed them where God created marriage. He made them male and female. He set it.
“You want us to persist in having lies at the fundamental level of our nation? What’s that going to do to our country, other than have it crumble and have judgment be upon it? You have to remember that there’s a God in heaven who has thoughts on these matters.
“Of course, it has to go because it’s non-reality. We have to become sane again as a nation. And because we’ve gotten ourself so deep into this sin, there’s no clean way to do it.” – Pete Hegseth’s pastor Brooks Potteiger, who last appeared here when he called for God to burn down a “demonic” network’s headquarters for featuring a gay couple on a reality show.
Pottigier’s church is part of Pastor Doug Wilson’s Christian nationalist network, which advocates for a full-Gilead theocracy in which women cannot vote and homosexuality is criminalized. Last week Hegseth retweeted a video in which Wilson called for all of those things.
| August 18, 1914 In another step in the ethnic intimidation that led ultimately to the Armenian genocide in Turkey, looting was reported in Sivas, Diyarbekir, and other provinces. Under the guise of collecting war contributions (WWI had just begun), stores owned by Armenian and Greek merchants were vandalized. 1,080 shops and stalls owned by Armenians were burned at the Diyarbekir bazaar. Chronology of the Armenian Genocide |
| August 18, 1920 Women throughout the U.S. won the right to vote when the Tennessee legislature approved the 19th amendment to the U.S. Constitution (the last of 36 states then required to approve it). An amendment for universal suffrage was first introduced in Congress in 1878, and Wyoming had granted suffrage in state law by 1890.  This amendment to enfranchise all American women had been introduced annually for 41 years without passage; it had gotten two-thirds of both houses of Congress to approve it just the year before. “The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.” In the Tennessee House, 24-year-old Representative Harry Burn surprised observers by casting the deciding vote for ratification. At the time of his vote, Burns had in his pocket a letter he had received from his mother urging him, “Don’t forget to be a good boy” and “vote for suffrage.”  Teaching With Documents: Woman Suffrage and the 19th Amendment (National Archives) (It is still there; I checked.) |
August 18, 1963 James Meredith James Meredith, the first African American to attend the University of Mississippi, became the first to graduate. His enrollment at “Ole Miss” a year earlier had been met with deadly riots, forcing him to attend class escorted by heavily armed guards.  James Meredith being escorted to his classes by U.S. marshals and the military. Who was James Meredith |
| August 18, 1964 South Africa was banned from taking part in the 18th Olympic Games in Tokyo due to the country’s refusal to reform its racially separatist apartheid system. Read more |
| August 18, 1977 Steve Biko, the leader of the Black Consciousness Movement resisting apartheid, was arrested at a roadblock outside King William’s Town. He died while in custody from abuse during the weeks of interrogation that followed.  Steve Biko “So as a prelude whites must be made to realise that they are only human, not superior. Same with Blacks. They must be made to realise that they are also human, not inferior.” “The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.” – Biko speech in Cape Town, 1971 More about Biko |
https://www.peacebuttons.info/E-News/peacehistoryaugust.htm#august18
Snippet: “We are not asking for inclusion as charity. We are demanding participation as justice. And we are not waiting for the tide to turn—we are drafting new maps, with new compasses, and inviting others to co-author the journey.”
Resist by Ann Telnaes
Everyone can contribute to protecting our democracy Read on Substack
A reader sent me this photo of a poster he created for an anti-Trump rally (He asked for permission. Thank you). I love it when you all use my work to protest… just please send me a photo and no revisions, like changing any text.
(photo used with permission)
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MAGA Motorboat by Clay Jones
Low expectations for the win Read on Substack
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held their summit yesterday at a military base in Anchorage, Alaska, and nothing came of it except validation for the Russian president.
Trump had put a deadline, HAHAHAHAHAHA, on Putin for a ceasefire in its war on Ukraine, which Putin started based on bullshit about Nazis in Ukraine. Now, you can’t find anyone in the Trump regime talking about his deadline. TACO done taco’ed out again.
Trump and Putin talked for two to three hours, when they were expecting a much longer summit. After that, they spent 12 minutes gushing over each other in front of the media, and unlike their little summit in Helsinki during Trump’s first term, they didn’t take any questions from the press.
Trump fashions himself as a great negotiator, which has always been a lie. He promised during the campaign that he’d end Russia’s war with Ukraine and Israel’s on Gaza in one day. It’s been almost eight months since Trump was sworn in, and there are no peace deals.
Trump said afterward, “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.” Remember, he’s a great negotiator.
He said, “I will call up NATO in a little while. I will call up the various people that I think are appropriate. And I’ll, of course, call up President Zelenskyy and tell him about today’s meeting. It’s ultimately up to them.”
Isn’t it nice that he’ll “call up” Zelensky, who was kicked out of the White House after being scolded by Trump and Vice President Couch Fucker? Trump plans another meeting with Zelensky in the White House. Good luck, Volodymyr.
Note the difference in the way Trump treats Zelensky and Putin. Zelensky has to travel around the world to meet Trump, and then gets scolded and kicked out of the White House for his trouble. But with Putin, Trump will travel to Alaska, literally roll out a red carpet for the guy, give him a ride in his armored limousine, and celebrate him with a flyover of stealth bombers, like they do at football championships. Maybe Trump thinks Putin won the Super Bowl.
On Saturday morning, Trump revealed that he and Putin decided not to try for a ceasefire at all, “which often times do not hold up,” said Trump, but instead work directly on a peace agreement. Well, why didn’t they think of that beforehand? And why the trip to Alaska if that’s all they were going to get out of it? (snip-MORE)
Historical Vision by Clay Jones
Don’t let fascists rewrite history Read on Substack
The Trump regime sent a letter to the Smithsonian Institution on Tuesday, requesting/demanding a “comprehensive internal review” of eight of its museums to bring the organization in line with Trump’s cultural directives ahead of the country’s 250th anniversary celebrations
The letter reads, This initiative aims to ensure alignment with the President’s directive to celebrate American exceptionalism, remove divisive or partisan narratives, and restore confidence in our shared cultural institutions.
The museums are the National Museum of American History, the National Museum of Natural History, the National Museum of African American History and Culture, the National Museum of the American Indian, the National Air and Space Museum, the Smithsonian American Art Museum, the National Portrait Gallery, and the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden.
What will these reviews determine? That the African American History Museum is too Black? This is more fascism.
The letter also stated, “Within 120 days, museums should begin implementing content corrections where necessary, replacing divisive or ideologically driven language with unifying, historically accurate, and constructive descriptions across placards, wall didactics, digital displays, and other public-facing materials.”
The beatings will continue until morale improves. (snip-you bet there’s MORE)
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Lock him up by Ann Telnaes
Crimes against democracy Read on Substack
The news media keep referring to Trump’s law & order agenda, which sets off my irony antenna. How about also mentioning in this coverage that Trump is a convicted felon and seditious ex-president who violated his sacred oath of office?
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Deep State Sandwich by Clay Jones
And this is why we can’t have $5-dollar foot longs anymore. Read on Substack
One of the editors who receives my cartoons wrote me today saying that he didn’t understand this cartoon, and would wait for the blog to explain it. Then he followed that with, “Hey, did you hear about the WNBA dildo throwers? Dude…
Anyhoos… Cops in Washington, DC have arrested a man who viciously attacked Border Patrol…with a Subway footlong sandwich. Maybe, if he had just thrown a 6-incher, there wouldn’t have been any ruckus over it, and Pam Bondi would have only charged him with a misdemeanor or would have been given a simple citation.
Baghdad wasn’t filled with violent insurgents until the US military invaded in 2003. It wasn’t long after the occupation of Iraq began that the terrorists showed up to kill Yankee devils, and I’m not talking about the Red Sox. Now, people who wanted to kill Americans didn’t have to travel so far.
W and Cheney promised a quick war, and they were right in that Saddam’s military was defeated in short order, but they ignored us when we told them the real fight would come after. Remember when they claimed we would be “greeted as liberators?” Yeah.
And you can say that cops weren’t being assaulted with sandwiches before Trump ordered the federalization of Washington, DC. Federalizing DC has not been greeted with warmth. It’s been greeted with derision and Subway sandwiches. I hope it wasn’t an Italian BMT. Those are my favorites. Remember the crab salad sub? What happened to those?
On Wednesday night, around 11 p.m., a man approached several Border Patrol officers in Washington, DC, in front of a Subway sandwich shop. Sean Charles Dun, the sandwich guy, reportedly called the heavily armed officers “fucking fascists,” yelling, “I don’t want you in my city!” before hurling a wrapped Subway sandwich at the chest of a Border Patrol cop, which bounced off his riot gear harmlessly. Kash Patel, a joke of an FBI director (this doesn’t help), shared a video of the incident. Dunn was later caught, “I did it. I threw a sandwich.”
The video is hilarious as you watch several cops chase a sandwich-throwing man in a pink shirt down the street. I get the whole chasing thing when they had a free sandwich. Maybe it was chicken teriyaki. You bastard!
Attorney General (ha!), Pam Bondi said, “This is an example of the Deep State we have been up against for seven months as we work to refocus DOJ.” That’s not a joke. She literally tweeted that. J6 was a little harmless protest, and the real danger is these deep-state sandwich fuckers. First, they sex traffic babies out of the basement of a DC pizza parlor, and now they’re throwing sandwiches at federal law enforcement. (snip-but wait, there’s MORE!)
It’s important to remember things, and to keep “issues” in context. Also, who have we asked for the Epstein files today? 😂
No, Rightwing Sh*tbirds Didn’t Pressure Costco Out Of Selling Abortion Pill by Rebecca Schoenkopf
Let’s not give a bunch of hate groups a win they didn’t earn. Read on Substack
With the neverending firehose of incredibly disappointing information, it’s easy to assume that everything is garbage and everything sucks all of the time. Yesterday, I yelled “Well, fuck Costco!” after reading a Reuters article titled “Costco to stop selling abortion pill mifepristone at its US pharmacy stores” — because that’s some bullshit, right?
Well, it was, just not in the way you might immediately assume. Costco never actually sold mifepristone, so they couldn’t “stop” selling something they never sold to begin with.
Stories later in the day did get it right (our link is to the archived very wrong version!). Costco had apparently been deliberating on whether or not to sell abortion medication at their pharmacies (it requires a certification to be able to carry it), and decided against.
Reuters and several other sources noted that the move came after “pressure” from anti-abortion groups, as well as Southern Poverty Law Center-designated hate groups like Alliance Defending Freedom, which even went so far as to issue an utterly insipid victory statement.
“We applaud Costco for doing the right thing by its shareholders and resisting activist calls to sell abortion drugs. Retailers like Costco keep their doors open by selling a lifetime of purchases to families, both large and small. They have nothing to gain and much to lose by becoming abortion dispensaries. Retail pharmacies exist to serve the health and wellness of their customers, but abortion drugs like mifepristone undermine that mission by putting women’s health at risk,” said Michael Ross, the group’s legal counsel.
For the record, mifepristone has an extremely low rate — 1 percent — of complications. It is more safe than Viagra or even Tylenol. Abortion is not the only use for the drug, either. It is also used to help safely expel a miscarriage so that one does not become septic (and perhaps require penicillin … yet another drug that is less safe than mifepristone). Groups like the ADF think that if they just keep confidently repeating blatant lies about abortion medication like they are universally accepted as true, that everyone will just go along with them. Just like maybe they’ll believe that the ADF and other groups are so influential that they actually did successfully push Costco to refuse to sell mifepristone.
But there is no reason to believe, without evidence, that Costco’s decision actually had anything to do with “bending the knee” to them or any other insane religious organizations dedicated to making life hell for women, LGBTQ+ people, and anyone who doesn’t share their religious beliefs.
Why? Because the company has no history of doing that, at all, for any reason. In fact, the company has notably refused to “bend the knee” to Republican Attorneys General and whiny conservatives across the land who have been demanding they ditch their DEI policies.
“If these are the policies you see as offensive, I must tell you I am not prepared to change,” CEO Richard Vachris wrote to a “concerned” customer who emailed him, upset about the company’s DEI policies and demanding to know if the company was hiring people based on “skin color” or “gender identification.”
“Attacks on DEI aren’t just bad for business — they hurt our economy. A diverse workforce drives innovation, expands markets, and fuels growth,” Costco board member Jeff Raikes wrote on social media.
Why would a company willing to risk the ire of these groups in that way suddenly decide to capitulate to them in another?
While it’s certainly disappointing that they didn’t change their policy of not selling mife, and those of us with Costco memberships should let them know that, the company has not said that this decision had anything at all to do with wanting to put a smile on the faces of the bigots at the ADF.
Rather, they said they didn’t think there was a demand for it.
“Our position at this time not to sell mifepristone, which has not changed, is based on the lack of demand from our members and other patients, who we understand generally have the drug dispensed by their medical providers,” Costco said in a statement. It’s not what we want to hear, obviously, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that they did this because of pressure from the Right.
It’s also worth noting that Costco is known to treat their workers well, paying them, on average $31 an hour with good benefits — quite a bit higher than many of their competitors.
They also have a strong history of not being shitty in this way.
It would be a mistake to roll over on one of the few companies out there that isn’t completely evil. In addition, we shouldn’t hand groups like ADF an unearned “win,” which they have made clear they want to use to pressure other companies — including CVS and Walgreens, which are certified to dispense mifepristone — to stop selling abortion medication, as well as to make the rest of us feel that they are winning the culture war.
It’s like when the One Million Moms (one mom) take credit for getting TV shows canceled or commercials pulled off the air when those decisions actually had nothing to do with them at all. Claiming victory, for these groups, is a way for them to rally their base and to make other companies think they have more influence than they actually do.
The majority of Americans believe that abortion should be legal, and they’ve demonstrated this by voting in favor of keeping it legal in their states at practically every turn (not in Florida, because Florida requires 60 percent of the population to approve a ballot measure, which is some bullshit).
If Costco thinks there isn’t enough demand for mifepristone (which, yes, is a weird thing to say because it’s not like a medication anyone gets on a regular basis), then we should convince them that there is, by encouraging them to change their mind and get the certification necessary to sell abortion medication. You can go directly to their website and click the “Feedback” tag on the right side of your screen, call them at 1-800-774-2678, or send them a letter at Costco Wholesale, P.O. Box 34331, Seattle, WA 98124.
Chuck Schumer has created and talked about a fictitious family declaring they are real people. It seems he has talked himself into believing they are real. This is the Democratic Party leader in the Senate. Hugs
Scottie's Playtime 