Note three: Jeanine Pirro just launched her latest bad idea. She has set up a tip line for people to call about crimes Eric Swalwell might have committed. Ok cool. We hope people use it. We also hope they let her know about the rapist piece of shit she works for. The number is 202-252-0809. (snip)
I was especially interested in the Justice Clarence Thomas comments, which I read, then became disinterested for reasons you’ll get if you read them. Lots of news of the day here.
A thin-skinned and prickly Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth went off on journalists in his press conference this morning, resorting to the classic “attack the messenger” defense to a unpopular war going poorly.
It’s not the first time Hegseth has succumbed to blaming a lack of patriotism among reporters for unfavorable headlines and critical reporting on a Middle East conflict ignited by the Trump administration. But today’s screed was striking for how it mixed the old worn-out reflexive questioning of the loyalty of reporters with biblical references that reflect Hegseth’s personal Christian nationalism:
“Sometimes it’s hard to figure out what side some of you are actually on,” Hegseth said. “It’s incredibly unpatriotic.”
In the decades since the Vietnam War, the Pentagon had haltingly moved away from the defensive crouch it often took in the face of criticism toward a more transparent and self-reflective public response to bad news. It was not always consistent and the backsliding was dramatic during periods of sustained setbacks, like in Iraq during the aughts, but the general trajectory was away from the kind of knee-jerk circle-the-wagons approach that Hegseth rolled out this morning.
Questioning the loyalty of journalists — or any regime critics — harkens to earlier dark eras of America history and to authoritarian regimes worldwide. But Hegseth’s diatribe came with a strong Christian twist, as he compared journalists to the Pharisees who rejected Jesus in the Bible:
“The Pharisees, the so-called and self-appointed elites of their time, they were there to witness, to write everything down, to record, but their hearts were hardened, even though they witnessed a literal miracle, it didn’t matter,” Hegseth said.
“They were only there to explain away the goodness in pursuit of their agenda. As the passage ends, the Pharisees went out and immediately held counsel against him, how to destroy him,” he continued.
“I sat there in church and I thought, our press are just like these Pharisees, not all of you, not all of you, but the legacy Trump-hating press, your politically motivated animus for President Trump nearly completely blinds you from the brilliance of our American warriors,” he added.
Hegseth — callow, reactive, driven by a warped theology of nationalism, and poorly grounded in history — personally represents a dramatic break from decades of training, education, and refining of a professional officers corps. In 15 months in office, Hegseth has done more to politicize the military than any secretary of defense in at least the last half century.
Third Boat Strike in Three Days
The accelerated pace of unlawful strikes against alleged drug-smuggling boats continued in the eastern Pacific, with the third such strike in the last three days. Three people were killed in the 51st strike of the U.S. campaign, bringing the death toll to at least 177 people.
What Trump Foreign Policy Looks Like
USA Today: Pentagon ramps up planning for possible military ops in Cuba
WSJ: Pentagon Approaches Automakers, Manufacturers to Boost Weapons Production
WaPo: Trump administration pushes nations to sign ‘trade over aid’ declaration
SCOTUS Watch
Justice Sonia Sotomayor apologized privately to Justice Brett Kavanaugh and followed up with a public apology released by the Supreme Court for remarks last week that, without naming him, attributed his defense of what have become known as “Kavanaugh stops” to his posh upbringing.
In a public appearance at Yale Law School, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson blasted the Roberts Court’s handling of its emergency docket.
In unusually pointed remarks carried live by CSPAN, Justice Clarence Thomas launched a broadside at progressivism.
Jan. 6 Never Ends
Trump lawyer and coup plotter John Eastman was officially disbarred in California after the state Supreme Court declined to take up his appeal.
Trump I White House chief of staff Mark Meadows is seeking reimbursement from the Trump DOJ of his legal fees incurred as a witness in both of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigations.
Must Read
Heather Cox Richardson draws a straight line from Lincoln’s assassination to Jan. 6 and the events of this week.
Do as We Say Not as We Do
NBC News: “Anti-abortion advocates met with Justice Department officials Wednesday, just hours after the Trump administration fired prosecutors it accused of coordinating too closely with abortion-rights advocacy groups during the Biden administration.”
Election-Year Islamophobia
When all else fails and their election prospects look dire, Republicans fall back on various forms of racist appeals to solidify their base and wrong-foot Democrats. This year, top Texas Republicans have landed on Islamophobia as the racist appeal of choice. TPM’s Josh Kovensky reports on the ground from Grapevine, Texas, where he talks to right-wing activists who are back again to warning about Sharia law and portraying Muslims as an external threat to “real” Americans.
Too often, gullible national media outlets treat these racist effusions like an organic upwelling of nativism, rather than a calculated election year strategy. TPM, I’m proud to say, has never been suckered in.
Thread of the Day
The Corruption: Bitcoin Jesus Edition
ProPublica offers a casebook study in the erosion of white-collar crime prosecutions under Trump II that includes the intervention of DOJ political appointees and the retention of a former Trump criminal defense attorney to outright kill one of the largest-ever cryptocurrency tax fraud cases.
Creepy Text of the Day
“Hearing u/r in town. Wishing you would let me know. I could have made some excuses to get out and show u around. Please keep this private.”—Richard Chavez, father of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in a text to a young female staff member working for his daughter
Hot tips? Juicy scuttlebutt? Keen insights? Let me know. For sensitive information, use the encrypted methods here. (snip)
Just one more pain and expense for migrants documented and undocumented face now under ICE. The goal is to make it so horrible that they will agree to self deport. Such hatred for another people simply due to skin color and language / accent is so foreign / alien to me that it seems like something out of reality. And who pays for these monitors? The immigrant who cannot afford it or the US tax payer. If the taxpayer meaning the government is paying for the costs is this just a way to enrich a private company on the taxpayers backs / dime. Yet all reports are that this is driven by Stephen Miller who is so shrill and over the top demanding that he put one commander in the hospital three times with his harassment and demands, and he is said to have driven ICE to attack protestors claiming that the public would be on the side of ICE if they could show that the protestors were dangerous thugs. Hugs
Agency uses devices, which are uncomfortable and interfere with employment, to push people to self-deport, advocates say
Critics say that ankle monitors impose psychological, economic and physical harms on the people required to wear them. Illustration: Guardian Design / Getty Images
For five years, an asylum-seeking woman attended routine check-ins with immigration authorities without issue. At her most recent appointment in October, she was unexpectedly ordered to strap on an ankle monitor, according to her attorney, Deepa Bijpuria.
Bijpuria, a supervising attorney in the immigration unit of Legal Aid DC, described the client as a single mom who fled her home country because of severe domestic violence, escaping while pregnant with her young daughter.
“[The order] was just such a shift after she’d been complying for years while waiting for her asylum application to be heard and decided,” she said.
Bijpuria said the working mom, who declined an interview and requested anonymity due to her vulnerable situation, lost at least one job after receiving the ankle monitor.
Bijpuria’s client is not the only immigrant to be blindsided by ankle monitor requirements. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) uses electronic monitoring through its Alternatives to Detention (ATD) program, which was formally implemented in 2004 to ensure that immigrants comply with legal obligations while their cases proceed without being placed in detention.
ATD compliance methods also include mobile apps and telephone check-ins. But Evan Benz, a senior attorney at the Amica Center for Immigrant Rights, said there had been a “marked shift” towards utilizing ankle monitors following a June 2025 internal ICE memo directing officers to place the devices on anyone enrolled in the ATD program.
ICE is using smartwatches to track pregnant women, even during labor: ‘She was so afraid they would take her baby’
Read more
The number of people in the ATD program with ankle monitors nearly doubled in subsequent months, even as overall enrollment in the program remained stable. The total grew from about 24,000 at the time of the memo, a figure reported by the Washington Post, to roughly 42,000 last month, according to a February fiscal year 2026 ICE report.
The increase has not been evenly distributed across the country. The February ICE report revealed that enforcement varies by region, with the DC area having the highest number of people required to wear ankle monitors in the country.
“If you’re in the area of the Washington DC field office, which covers Virginia and the city of Washington DC, then you’re drastically more likely to be subjected to ankle monitoring,” Benz said. “But it’s not really clear exactly what the reason is for regional variation.”
In an email to the Guardian, an ICE spokesperson said that the ATD program used “individualized determinations” to tailor supervision levels on a case-by-case basis, allowing ICE to escalate or de-escalate oversight as needed. The spokesperson added that decisions were based on criminal history, compliance record and “any other relevant factors” when determining whether to keep someone in detention during ongoing proceedings.
Bijpuria said uneven enforcement highlighted the “arbitrary” nature of ankle monitor assignments, recalling many clients who were fitted with the devices despite having complied with their legal obligations. The cases, she said, raise questions about whether ensuring compliance is truly the goal behind the monitoring.
These concerns are reinforced by a 2021 study conducted by the Cardozo School of Law, which found that ankle monitors do not necessarily improve compliance and may even be counterproductive. The report found that 98% of immigrants released without electronic ankle monitors attended all court hearings and ICE check-ins, compared with 93% of those required to wear the devices.
Legal experts say uncertainty about the motives behind ankle monitor orders is exacerbated by limited transparency from federal authorities. ICE’s internal memo was never released publicly, prompting the Amica Center to file a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.
Benz said ICE initially responded to the lawsuit by saying it would publish the memo on its website. The agency later said it could not do so at the time because of the ongoing Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown.
“We’ve seen that ICE is not an agency that cares very much about transparency in its dealings with immigrants, or really the public at large,” Benz said.
Julia Decker, policy director at the Immigrant Law Center of Minnesota, said the lack of transparency reflected a strategy of “intentional chaos”, in which creating uncertainty and anxiety in immigrant communities was “part of the plan”.
Decker raised concerns that the use of ankle monitors and the broader ATD program could become another way to “force” immigrants into a mistake that would push them into detention.
“I think that it’s very, very likely that any program like this becomes a way to funnel you right back into the very system that it was supposed to be an alternative to,” she said. “Particularly with an administration like this one that has been very public with its statements about wanting to arrest and deport as many [people as possible].”
Benz echoed Decker’s concerns, calling the ATD program an “alternative form of detention” rather than a true alternative to detention.
“We’ve seen a number of cases where ICE has used the ankle monitor to track down someone at home,” he said. “Sometimes there has been a ruse of ‘Hey, can you come outside? We got an alert. There’s something wrong with your ankle monitor, and we just need to check it out.’ And then that person is actually detained by ICE.”
Immigrant trucker returns to war-torn Ukraine rather than risk ICE encounter: ‘I preferred going back home’
Read more
Beyond increasing the risk of detention, ankle monitors impose psychological, economic and physical harms on the people required to wear them, experts said.
“There are very onerous conditions of supervision, like curfews, home inspections and restrictions on where you can travel,” Benz said. “All of these combined can take a great toll on an individual on a psychological level. They don’t feel free. They feel as if they’re being watched, and they are also having their liberty, their freedom of movement, actually physically restrained.”
He noted that people wearing ankle monitors were more likely to lose their jobs, as the devices are often associated with the criminal legal system and can make those who wear them appear suspicious to employers.
Bijpuria emphasized the physical discomfort of ankle monitors. “Besides the psychological trauma, shame and disruption, it’s difficult to sleep.”
She added that the combination of deportation threats and the various harms of ankle monitors appeared designed to pressure people into self-deportation. Last year, the then DHS secretary, Kristi Noem, announced a nationwide, multimillion-dollar campaign that offered incentives for self-deportation, including up to $1,000 in financial assistance and free travel.
“We’ve seen people who’ve been detained or put on ankle monitoring who have options but, because of the conditions that they’re subjected to, ultimately decide to self-deport,” Bijpuria said. “You also have to remember there are private companies involved, and there is someone who’s making money from all this. They don’t have enough capacity for detaining everyone, so this is an alternative still getting you in that pipeline to ultimate removal.”
Amid the shifting landscape of immigration policies, a continuing DHS shutdown and leadership changes, Benz stressed the importance of submitting a written request to ICE for removal or avoidance of the device, supported by medical documentation demonstrating its negative impacts. Benz pointed to guides for attorneys representing clients in the ATD program and people navigating the process without legal representation.
“I think that [ankle monitoring and the ATD program] have flown under the radar in part because there are so many awful things that this agency is doing every day in terms of ripping people away from their families and their communities,” Benz said. “But the use of ankle monitors by ICE is a very harmful phenomenon.”
There’s gotta be something each of us wants to know, and likely are things we need to know but may not be covered by traditional or partisan news outlets. It’s long, of course.
Today, we will look at yesterday’s congressional resignations, President Donald Trump’s criticism of Pope Leo, and other news spanning each continent.
Let’s get to it.
United States
-Both Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell and Republican Congressman Tony Gonzalez resigned from the House of Representatives yesterday amid a slew of ethical and legal controversies related to sexual misconduct.
The House Clerk read their respective resignation letters on the floor, which were met by bipartisan applause.
Their departures leave the lower chamber with 216 Republicans and 213 Democrats.
-California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation yesterday setting the date for a special election to fill the remainder of Swalwell’s term for August 18.
-House Democrats introduced a bill that would establish a commission to assess whether President Donald Trump should be removed from office.
-Wholesale inflation rose to 4% in March, a four-year high, according to new data released yesterday.
The uptick was fueled by a 15.7% rise in gasoline prices, accounting for half of the increase due to the war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the average U.S. gas price stood at $4.11 yesterday, according to AAA.
-Senate Majority Leader John Thune said yesterday that Republicans “would be prepared to confirm” a nominee to the Supreme Court in the event of a retirement ahead of the midterm elections.
For weeks, rumors in Washington have circulated around whether Justice Samuel Alito could retire in the next several weeks.
The 76-year-old conservative has been on the Court since 2006 and is the second-oldest on the high court, behind Clarence Thomas.
-The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a confirmation hearing next Tuesday on Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve.
-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that Trump is readying an executive order that would mandate U.S. banks to collect citizenship information.
-The Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Connecticut and the city of New Haven over its sanctuary policies.
-The Republican National Committee (RNC) ended February with $109 million, seven times as much as its Democratic counterpart.
-Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper raised more than $13.8 million in the first quarter of the year.
-Trump said that he was “not a big fan” of Riley Gaines after the conservative activist criticized his posting of an AI-generated image depicting himself as Jesus.
-Streamer Hasan Piker called the Republican Party the “biggest domestic terrorist” group in the country on Pod Save America.
The comment comes as Democrats wrestle with whether to welcome or distance themselves from the content creator ahead of this year’s elections.
-Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a prospective 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, will be honored by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund in Washington this weekend.
-Former President Joe Biden’s official portrait was unveiled yesterday at Syracuse University.
-Authorities in Nigeria apprehended a 33-member gang allegedly responsible for abducting 38 people at a church in the country’s central Kwara state in November.
The arrest is part of the central government’s crackdown on criminal groups.
-Libya’s eastern- and western-based administrations participated in military exercises hosted by the United States for the first time on Tuesday.
Since the ouster of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, the North African country has been rocked by civil conflict and divided government authority, with competing geographic factions vying for territorial control since 2014.
-On this day in 1958, the First Conference of Independent African States was held in Accra, Ghana, bringing together the leaders of the eight independent African nations at the time to coordinate their opposition to colonialism and foster continental unity.
At the gathering, the leaders designated April 15 as “African Freedom Day.”
In 1963, the Organization of African Unity moved the date to May 25.
In 2023, civil war broke out in Sudan after the country’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) descended into a battle for control of the capital, Khartoum.
Since then, the country has been gripped by widespread death and disease.
According to some estimates, there have been at least 150,000 deaths since the war broke out, with some 14 million more people having been displaced.
According to the United Nations, an estimated 19 million people, or about 41% of the population, are facing “high levels of acute food insecurity.”
-Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called for the extradition of former spy chief Alexandre Ramagem after he was apprehended in the United States.
Ramagem fled Brazil after he was convicted of his role in plotting a coup with now-former President Jair Bolsonaro following his 2022 election defeat.
Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison term.
-On this day in 1959, Fidel Castro visited the United States, just four months after successfully leading a revolution that toppled Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista.
-North Korea carried out another test of its strategic cruise and anti-warship missiles on Sunday as relations between Pyongyang and South Korea continue to deteriorate.
-Five countries in the Indo-Pacific will participate in U.S.-led military exercises in the region starting next week.
The drills, which will run from April 20 to May 8, come as U.S. allies in the region worry that Washington’s strategic focus has shifted from Asia to the Middle East amid its conflict with Iran.
Australia, Canada, France, the Philippines, and New Zealand will contribute forces to the multilateral effort.
-Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. did a few rounds of jumping jacks in a bid to dispel rumors of his failing health.
-The United Nations said that around 250 people are missing after a boat carrying Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi nationals capsized in the Andaman Sea due to heavy winds.
-On this day in 1998, Pol Pot died in his sleep.
During his four-year rule over Cambodia, his Khmer Rouge regime carried out a genocide against the Cambodian people, killing an estimated 1.5 to 3 million people, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the Southeast Asian nation’s population.
-Days after President Trump criticized Pope Leo for his opposition to Washington’s war against Iran, the Vatican issued a statement warning the advanced democracies risked sliding into “majoritarian tyranny,” a seemingly veiled shot at Trump’s populist movement.
-In an interview with an Italian newspaper, Trump said that he was “shocked” by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s opposition to his decision to launch a military operation against Iran, representing a break between the conservative allies.
In response to Meloni calling his attacks on the Pope “unacceptable,” Trump said, “It’s her who’s unacceptable.”
-Trump called on the United Kingdom to drill oil from the North Sea to offset surging global energy prices.
-U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will once again skip a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group today. Instead, the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, will attend in his place.
A meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in June 2022.
The grouping of over 50 defense chiefs seeks to coordinate military assistance to Ukraine as it wards off invading Russian forces.
The forum was established in April 2022 just after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since assuming office, the Trump administration has delegated its leadership role in the body.
-French President Emmanuel Macron said he would seek a coordinated approach to ban minors from using social media across the 27-member European Union.
-On this day in 1452, Leonardo da Vinci was born in Italy.
In 1912, the RMS Titanic sank in the North Atlantic.
Shortly after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran on February 28, the Israeli military began striking Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, ending a teetering ceasefire agreement.
According to estimates, the fighting has killed around 2,000 people and displaced over one million people in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, President Trump said yesterday that talks with Iran could resume as early as this week.
Last weekend, Vice President JD Vance led a U.S. delegation for talks with Iranian officials in Pakistan. After those talks broke down, Trump said that he would impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to get Iran to agree to a long-term agreement to settle the war and to place limits on its nuclear program.
Vance appeared on Fox News on Monday to discuss the talks.
It is believed that Iran has planted mines in the strategic waterway, and Tehran has threatened to attack ports belonging to Arab Gulf states if its ports are attacked.
Prior to the recent war in the region, the Strait served as a conduit for 20% of the world’s daily oil consumption.
The 76-year-old, who has dominated politics in Israel for the better part of the past two decades, is expected to seek another term in office in parliamentary elections due by late October.
Last week, a long-running public corruption trial against Netanyahu restarted after pausing due to the war.
-On this day in 1993, President Bill Clinton hosted Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in the Oval Office to discuss the Middle East peace process.
Later that year, Clinton would host Rabin, along with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, at the White House for the signing of the Oslo Accords, establishing a framework for the eventual settlement of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
In 1995, Rabin was assassinated as he departed a peace rally in Tel Aviv by an Israeli radical angry over Rabin’s peace overtures to the Palestinians.
Speaking at Rabin’s funeral service in Jerusalem, Clinton said, “Your Prime Minister was a martyr for peace, but he was a victim of hate. Surely we must learn from his martyrdom that if people cannot let go of the hatred of their enemies, they risk sowing the seeds of hatred among themselves.”
This is a doctor working in Gaza. He describes the conditions. The Israelis are sniping World Health doctors. Israelis are moving the “yellow line” that they are claiming is the new boundary line between Israel and Palestinians. They are slowly moving the line deeper ad deeper into Gaza. The Israeli snipers were shooting the young boys in different areas on different days, now they are using drones to fire on young children alone with horrific results. Remember from the last clip he was saying how Israel is blocking and destroying the medical supplies and equipment. Israel is deliberately shooting and killing children. They want the chaos it causes, they like the fear it promotes, and they like that no new generations of Palestinians are growing. The doctor spoke of other atrocities that Israel is inflicting daily on the Palestinians. Israel is a criminal nation doing a genocide, and much of our democratic leadership is deeply in the pockets of AIPAC. Notice that Hakeem Jeffries was also at the same event. People here have asked why I am so anti-democratic leadership; this is one of the reasons why. They are beholden to the big money donors and lobbies doing their bidding while ignoring the desires and will of the people they are supposed to represent, not rule over. Hugs
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has emphasized his commitment to maintaining pro-Israel sentiments within the Democratic Party. In recent statements, Schumer articulated that his role is to ensure that the left remains supportive of Israel, a position he conveyed during an interview with The New York Times. This assertion reflects a broader concern regarding the changing dynamics of the Democratic Party’s support for Israel and Jewish causes. Schumer’s comments have sparked discussions about the implications of this shift, particularly in light of the party’s historical alignment with pro-Israel policies. Opinion pieces have noted that Schumer views the preservation of American institutions as integral to protecting religious minorities, highlighting the intersection of Jewish identity and political advocacy. https://deepnewz.com/middle-east/chuck-schumer-emphasizes-role-keeping-left-pro-israel-says-job-to-keep-the-left-f0ff217c
“I have many jobs as [Senate] leader… and one is to fight for aid to Israel — all the aid that Israel needs,” Schumer said at a gathering of Jewish leaders and community members in New York on Sunday.
“I will continue to fight for it.,” Schumer continued. “We delivered more security assistance to Israel, our ally, than ever, ever before.”
According to Jacob Kornbluh, who provided footage of the remarks while reporting for The Forward, Schumer told the audience that his support for Jewish security funding will only continue growing under his leadership, calling it his “baby.” https://www.commondreams.org/news/schumer-israel-aid
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said on Sunday that one of his most important jobs as Senate minority leader is to “fight for aid to Israel,” as the Trump administration’s masked federal agents continue their deadly raids of the U.S. with little to no pushback from Democrats.
Dr. Tarek Loubani, a Canadian emergency room physician who has been volunteering in Palestine joins the program from Gaza for a harrowing interview. If you can, please support Dr. Loubani’s Glia Project, a medical solidarity organization that empowers low-resource communities to build sustainable, locally-drive healthcare projects.
Dr. Tarek Loubani, a Canadian emergency room physician who has been volunteering in Palestine joins the program from Gaza for a harrowing interview. If you can, please support Dr. Loubani’s Glia Project, a medical solidarity organization that empowers low-resource communities to build sustainable, locally-drive healthcare project.
Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – On Easter Sunday, God’s chosen in the White House issued a vulgar and unbalanced posting on his “Truth Social” that epitomizes the insanity of his Iran War. Attending to it closely will help us understand how Trump has strengthened the government of the Islamic Republic and put it in control of global energy. Trump fondly imagines that he can dislodge Iran from this new ascendancy, but he is wrong, since it depends on sabotage, a sabotage that cannot be policed.
This is embarrassing, Delete it, President @realDonaldTrump – unless you want everyone to think you’ve lost your marbles.
The foul language and clear mental imbalance visible in this announcement sparked a further round of calls for Trump’s removal under Article 25 of the Constitution, which is nothing more than an internet meme since Trump has surrounded himself on his cabinet with people even more certifiable than he is, and who wouldn’t dare move against him.
Trump, having imbibed whatever substance it is that makes him manic, announced that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”
He is repeating a threat he made previously, to bomb Iran’s civilian electricity-generating plants as well as its civilian bridges.
Iran has 98 major power plants fueled by fossil gas, which generate 85% of the country’s electricity. The largest, the Damavand power plant south of the capital, Tehran, has a generating capacity of over 2.8 gigawatts.
One of Iran’s power plants is nuclear, at Bushehr. If Trump or Israel bombs it, the consequent radiation pollution will deeply harm the Arab Gulf states, not only through airborne particles but also by contaminating sea water, which is drawn on by the region’s desalinization plants. This exposure to radiation would certainly increase cancer risk in the region. There are mountains between Bushehr and the Iranian interior, so the radioactive particles would be blown west toward other countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Striking civilian power plants, and above all nuclear ones, endangers the noncombatant population of children, women and unarmed men and violates International Humanitarian Law.
In fact, the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued “warrants of arrest for two individuals, Mr Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu and Mr Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov, in the context of the situation in Ukraine for alleged international crimes . . .” on June 24, 2024. They were indicted for “for the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects (article 8(2)(b)(ii) of the Rome Statute) and the war crime of causing excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects (article 8(2)(b)(iv) of the Rome Statute), and the crime against humanity of inhumane acts under article 7(1)(k) of the Rome Statute.”
Among the “civilian objects” that these Russian officials ordered attacked in Ukraine were power plants and structures such as the Kryukovsky Bridge.
So Trump is talking like a war criminal, which tells you why he has placed sanctions on International Criminal Court judges.
Trump already struck the unfinished B1 bridge linking Tehran to Karaj. Since it was not finished, it could not possibly have had a military purpose, contrary to the lies of the lying liars in the Trump administration who gave that as the excuse for hitting it.
Trump continued, “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell– JUST WATCH!
It is not clear how a body of water such as a strait could copulate. However, it can engender revenue, and does so for Iran. A lot of revenue.
Iran has not actually closed the Strait of Hormuz entirely. It is exporting its own petroleum through that narrow aperture, mainly to China. Trump has been forced by the global oil shortage to lift sanctions on the Iranian tankers, and so Iran is also selling again to India. Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rushed Trump into war on Iran on February 28, Iran was exporting about 1.4 million barrels a day to China. The price of petroleum was about $67 a barrel then, but Iran had to offer a steep discount to offset American sanctions, and so was probably only getting $57 or less a barrel. So Iran was getting something like $29 billion a year for its petroleum from China and a few other customers (90% goes to China).
China is now likely having to pay $110 a barrel for Iranian petroleum.
Iran’s oil income just went up to $55 billion a year if these prices and this volume of trade persists, which is plausible. So the “crazy bastards” in charge of Iran have nearly doubled their income off the Netanyahu-Trump war because of the fertility, under their control, of the “fuckin’ Strait.” The Iranian oil industry is state-owned, so all the money goes to the clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, as well as to the conventional army and the elected institutions, the parliament and president. This extra income helps the government tamp down resistance, strengthening it against civil society. In any case, many Iranians under foreign attack are rallying around the flag. Of course there are also tax losses from the economic disruption of the war, but the vastly increased oil income helps make up for them as far as the government is concerned. If the price of oil goes to $200 a barrel, as it may well, Iran’s government could get $100 billion a year for its petroleum.
Not only that, but Iran has instituted a toll system, wherein countries that have good relations with Iran and pay a fee can transit the Strait without fear of an Iranian drone attack. In contrast, countries that Iran believes contribute to the American war effort against Tehran such as the Emirates and Kuwait, are blockaded by the threat of such strikes. These tolls could be an ongoing and lucrative source of income for the government. Before the war, 138 ships transited the Strait daily. If that traffic resumes but each has to pay Iran a $2 million toll, that would bring in $96 billion a year, i.e. four times what Iran was getting for its petroleum before the war.
So here’s the thing. With the advent of Iran’s Shahed drones, which can be manufactured inexpensively and of which it has tens and thousands, there is no way for anyone, including Trump and the US military, to stop Iran from sabotaging ships that won’t pay the $2 million. At least, I don’t see how it could be done. You’d need tens of thousands of interceptors, and we hardly have any left. Moreover, interceptors cost $1.5 million apiece, so it makes much more sense to allow each ship to pay Iran the $2 million.
Container ship in Strait of Hormuz. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Indra Beaufort).Public Domain. Via Picryl .
Trump has shown Iran how it can go into the protection business in the Gulf for the long term. Nice oil shipping industry you have here, it would be a shame if anything happened to it. And off that, Iran actually increases its GDP substantially.
If Trump takes out Iran’s electricity and bridges, he can interfere with its economy and its society in a big way. But he can’t stop the drones or the protection racket that way. Moreover, Iran has made it clear that its response will be to take out the power plants in the Gulf Arab states as well as in Israel. Since the US and Israel are running low on interceptors, and since even small Shahed drones have great range and can do a lot of damage, Iran’s threat is credible.
If Trump takes out Iran’s petroleum-production capability, Iran will crash oil production in the Gulf, taking 20 million barrels a day off the market for years to come. That would certainly be another Great Depression and likely would spell the end of the oil industry, since everyone in the world would migrate to electric vehicles quickly.
So although Trump meant the phrase ironically and blasphemously, the Iranian authorities may well end up saying “Praise be to Allah” over Trump’s monumental stupidity.
Critics say that ankle monitors impose psychological, economic and physical harms on the people required to wear them. Illustration: Guardian Design / Getty Images
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